基于能值-生态足迹模型的东北老工业基地生态安全评价——以辽宁省为例  

An emergy-ecological footprint model based evaluation of ecological security at the old industrial area in Northeast China: A case study of Liaoning Province

作　　者：杨青[1,2] 逯承鹏[1] 周锋[2,3] 耿涌[4] 景红双 任婉侠[1] 薛冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所污染生态与环境工程重点实验室,沈阳110016 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所土壤生态与农业生态工程研究中心,沈阳110164 [4]上海交通大学环境科学与工程学院,上海200240 [5]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,沈阳110016

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2016年第5期1594-1602,共9页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家杰出青年基金项目(71325006);国家自然科学基金项目(41471116;71303230);辽宁省博士科研启动基金项目(201501037);四川省社会科学重点研究基地--四川循环经济研究中心重点项目(XHJJ-1505)资助~~

摘　　要：采用能值-生态足迹模型,对辽宁省2003—2012年生态安全状况进行时间序列的定量分析与评价,并采用灰色动力学模型预测其动态变化趋势.结果表明:研究期内辽宁省人均能值生态承载力从3.13 hm^2下降到3.07 hm^2,人均能值生态足迹由13.88 hm^2增加到21.96hm^2,处于生态赤字状态,且赤字增大趋势明显;生态压力指数由4.43增长到7.16,生态安全预警等级由轻警过渡到中警程度.照此发展,2013—2022年辽宁省人均能值生态承载力将由3.04 hm^2下降到2.98 hm^2,人均能值生态足迹将由22.72 hm^2上升到35.87 hm^2;生态赤字将越来越大,生态压力指数将由7.46上升到12.04,生态安全等级将由较安全变为轻度不安全状态,并呈现由中警到重警的生态安全预警等级,生态安全问题亟待解决.Based on the integrated model of emergy-ecological footprint approaches, the ecological security of Liaoning Province, a typical case for the old industrial area, was quantitatively evaluated from 2003 to 2012, followed by a scenario analysis on the development trend of the ecological security by employing the gray kinetic model. The results showed that, from 2003 to 2012, the value of emergy ecological-capacity per capita in Liaoning Province decreased from 3.13 hm2 to 3.07 hm2, while the emergy-ecological footprint increased from 13.88 hm2 to 21.96 hm2, which indicated that the ecological deficit existed in Liaoning Province and the situation was getting worse. The ecological pressure index increased from 4.43 to 7.16 during the studied period, and the alert level of ecologi- cal security changed from light to middle level. According to the development trend, the emergy ecological capacity per capita during 2013-2022 would correspondingly decrease from 3.04 hm2 to 2.98 hm2, while the emergy ecological footprint would increase from 22.72 hm2 to 35.87 hm2, the ecological pressure index would increase from 7.46 to 12.04, and the ecological deficit would keep increasing and the ecological security level would slide into slightly unsafe condition. The alert level of ecological security would turn to be middle or serious, suggesting the problems in ecological safe- ty needed to be solved urgently.

关 键 词：可持续性 能值-生态足迹模型 生态安全 生态协调系数 东北老工业基地 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]