经济冲击的非对称性与两岸四地的货币合作  

The Asymmetry of Economic Shocks and the Monetary Cooperation among Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan,and the Mainland of China

作　　者：张志敏[1] 苑西恒[1] 姜红艳[2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081 [2]北京师范大学经济与管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（社会科学版）》2016年第2期21-28,共8页Journal of Lanzhou University（Social Sciences）

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目一般项目(15JGB131)

摘　　要：基于最优货币区理论,从经济周期同步性与经济冲击对称性角度,考察了中国两岸四地构建最优货币区的经济基础。实证结果显示,两岸四地虽然在短期内具有共同周期,长期内存在共同的发展趋势,但是,在经济冲击方面仍不具有对称性,这说明短期内尚不满足构建最优货币区的条件。为此,两岸四地应加深地区间的货币合作,增强其对不对称性冲击的调节吸收能力,以降低外部冲击的风险。Based on the theory of optimum currency area and the assumption that economic cycles synchronize and economic shocks are symmetric, this research investigates the economic foundations for the con- struction of an optimum currency area among the four components of China： Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and the Mainland. The finding reveals that although synchronic economic cycles do exist among these four components within short terms, which indicates the possibility of long-term mutual development, asymmetry of economic shocks does exist. This means that the foundations to build an optimum currency area among these four components are still lacking-at least within a short term. To meet this end, regional monetary coop- eration among Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and the Mainland of China should be deepened so that the ability to resist and regulate the asymmetry of economic shocks can be enhanced and the external risk can be re- duced.

关 键 词：经济周期 经济冲击 货币合作 最优货币区理论 

分 类 号：F820.4[经济管理—财政学]