应用系统分析与事故树模型的设备雷电灾害风险评估  

Application of System Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis Method to Lightning Disaster Risk Assessment of Equipment

作　　者：张烨方[1] 冯真祯[1] 王颖波[1] 刘冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省防雷中心,福州350001

出　　处：《气象科技》2016年第2期319-324,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：分析目前国内雷电灾害风险评估发展现状,针对精细化雷击风险评估需求,以某大桥塔体电梯雷电灾害风险评估为例,在对雷击损坏途径进行系统分析的基础上,引入事故树(FTA)分析方法对电梯雷击损坏事件的致因关系进行了建模、分析与评价,得出电梯雷击损坏事件发生的年预计概率、导致雷击电梯损坏事件发生的关键以及最佳控制雷击电梯损坏事件发生的最有效因素。Based on the analysis of the current situation of lightning disaster risk assessment, the demands for delicacy assessment are analyzed. Taking a bridge tower＇s elevator assessment as an example, the methods of lightning disaster risk assessment of specific objects are studied. Based on the systemic analysis of lightning damage approaches, the fault tree analysis （FTA） method is introduced and used to establish models, analyze and assess the causal relation of elevator lightning damage events, so to calculate the annual probabilities of elevator lightning damage events and the most effective factors influencing the lightning damage probability and the most critical and optimal control of elevator lightning damage events.

关 键 词：事故树(FTA) 雷电灾害 风险评估 

分 类 号：TP311.13[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]