利用Logistic回归方法的高速桥(路)面结冰风险等级预警模型  

Warning Model of Risk Degree for Bridge/Road Surface Icing of Expressway Based on Logistic Regression

作　　者：白永清[1,2] 陈城[3] 何明琼 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉430205 [2]湖北省气象服务中心,武汉430205 [3]湖北省气象信息与技术保障中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《气象科技》2016年第2期336-340,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局华中区域气象中心科技发展基金项目(QY-Z-201305);湖北省气象局科技发展基金项目(2013Q07)共同资助

摘　　要：为提升湖北省高速公路交通气象预报服务能力,丰富高速公路沿线桥、路面结冰预警预报产品,开展特色专业气象服务,利用武英高速凤凰关交通气象站2009—2011年3年冬季桥、路面温度观测数据,基于Logistic回归模型解析了桥、路面结冰温度条件频率随环境气温的变化规律,建立了道路结冰温度条件风险概率模型,并由此构建了武英高速桥(路)面结冰风险等级预警模型,得到以下结论。武英高速公路桥面先于路面结冰的临界环境气温存在2℃差效应,桥(路)面结冰温度条件的低、中、高风险频率对应环境气温3基点为1℃(-1℃)、-0.6℃(-2.7℃)、-2.2℃(-4.4℃)。环境气温降低到0.3^-1.6℃(-1.7^-3.8℃)是武英高速桥(路)面结冰频率变化的快增期,-0.6℃(-2.7℃)左右是桥(路)面结冰频率变化最敏感基点。研究以等级形式发布武英高速公路桥、路面结冰风险预警产品,用户可根据条件主动选择防范或规避风险。In order to improve the capability of highway traffic meteorological service in Hubei Province, and to provide the warning the products of icing on the bridge and road surface along the Wuying expressway, based on the observations of bridge and road surface temperature and conventional meteorological data from Fenghuangguan Station from 2009 to 2011 in winter, the variation regularity of conditional frequency of temperature for icing with the environmental temperature of bridge and road surface is analzed, and the warning model of risk degree for icing was established by using the logistic regression method. The results show that icing on bridge surface is more frequently than on road surface in the same environmental temperature. The environmental temperature for icing is usually 2 ℃ lower on bridge surface than on road surface. The environmental temperatures corresponding to the low, middle, and high of risk degrees of icing on bridge surface is 1 ℃, --0.6 ℃, and--2.2 ℃ ; and those of icing on road surface is -- 1 ℃, -- 2.7 ℃, and - 4.4 ℃, respectively. The frequency of icing on bridge （road） surface varies quickly when the environmental temperature is --1.6 ℃ to 0.3 ℃ （--3.8 ℃ to --1.7 ℃）, and the most sensitive temperature point to frequency change is about --0.6 ℃ （--2.7 ℃）. Therefore, the traffic risk of icing on road surface in winter can be reduced through using the warning products of icing on the bridge/road surface of the expressway.

关 键 词：桥(路)面温度 结冰 LOGISTIC回归 风险等级 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]