长江口航道通过能力的评价与预测研究  

Evaluation and Prediction on Trafficability of Navigation Channel at Estuary of Yangtze River

作　　者：杨兴晏[1] 胡世津[1] 孙景龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]中交第一航务工程勘察设计院有限公司,天津300222

出　　处：《港工技术》2016年第2期34-39,共6页Port Engineering Technology

摘　　要：针对长江口现有航道条件建立了计算机仿真模型并结合2014年的统计数据以及规划预测的船舶条件进行了多方案的仿真模型试验。利用航道利用率及船舶平均等航道时间两项技术指标对多方案试验结果进行了比较分析,评价了长江口航道的运行现状并对现有航道的通过能力问题进行了预测研究。A computer simulation model has been built for the existing navigation channel at the estuary of Yangtze River. Multi-option simulation tests have been made by using the above model on the basis of 2014 statistic data and the vessel conditions planned and predicted. The results of multi-option tests have been compared and analyzed by referring to two technical indices, i.e. the utilization rate of channel and the average waiting time of a ship before entering the channel. In addition, an evaluation has been given to the present state of the channel at the estuary of Yangtze River, and the prediction has been made for the trafficability of the existing channel in the future.

关 键 词：仿真模型 航道通过能力 航道利用率 船舶平均等航道时间 评价与预测 

分 类 号：U652.14[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]