安顺市两类暴雨模型的建立及应用研究  

The Establishment and Application of Two Types of Rainstorm Model in Anshun

作　　者：杨忠明[1] 冯新建[1] 彭波[1] 周文钰[1] 

机构地区：[1]贵州省安顺市气象局,贵州安顺561000

出　　处：《贵州气象》2016年第2期40-44,共5页Journal of Guizhou Meteorology

基　　金：安顺市气象局气象科研项目(2015-07-03号)"基于多模式数值预报检验订正的精细化温度预报研究"

摘　　要：该文建立了对安顺影响最多的辐合线锋生型和冷锋低槽型暴雨天气学模型,同时通过分析相关站点的物理"配料"在暴雨发生期间的变化特征,统计出了表征动力、热力和水汽条件等物理量在暴雨发生期间的阈值。最后通过实况资料与数值预报产品结合的方式,得到了一个预报安顺暴雨的方法。对2012年5—9月天气进行了逐日检验试报,并在2015年汛期试用,结果表明该方法对安顺暴雨有较强的预报能力,试报准确率Ts=66.7%。Two types of rainstorm model that most affected Anshun were established. They are the convergence line frontogenesis type and the cold front and low trough type. The threshold values of physical quantities about the condition of moisture, thermodynamics and dynamic were calculated by analyzing the variation characteristics of physical quantity ingredients during the rainstorm. Combining meteorological observation data with numerical fore- cast products, a rainstorm forecasting method for Anshun was developed. This method shows great forecast accuracy （Ts = 66.7% ） for rainstorm forecasting in Anshun after forecasting the weather from May to September in 2012 and in the flood season of 2015.

关 键 词：暴雨 天气学模型 物理“配料” 数值预报产品 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]