基于覆冰周期分段建模预测的研究  

Study on the Prediction of Segmented Model Based on Icing Period

作　　者：罗永勤[1] 武国亮[1] 牛彪[1] 王晶晶[2] 尹晖[2] 龚芳馨[3] 

机构地区：[1]国网山西省电力公司,山西太原030000 [2]武汉大学测绘学院,湖北武汉430079 [3]武汉大学电气工程学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《陕西电力》2016年第4期6-11,共6页Shanxi Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(51507114);湖北省自然科学基金项目资助(2014CFB272);国家电网公司科技项目(SGSX0000YJJS(2014)457)

摘　　要：输电线路覆冰现象在冬季比较普遍,已成为威胁架空输电线路安全运行的重要因素。物理模型和经验模型是建立输电线路覆冰模型的2种思路。一个完整的覆冰周期变化复杂,目前建立的经验模型均是针对整个覆冰周期,建模精度不高。根据大量覆冰数据聚集分析,将覆冰周期分为4段:覆冰快速增长期、覆冰不稳定增长期、覆冰稳定期和覆冰脱落期。提出了针对不同时期变化特征建立不同模型进行覆冰预测,对比了整体建模预测结果与分段建模预测结果,结果表明分段建模预测精度优于整体建模精度。Transmission line icing is a common phenomenon in China, which has become an important factor to thz^aten the safe operation of overhead transmission lines. Transmission line modeling has two thoughts： physical models and experiential models. So far, none of models is proved successfully. The whole icing period changes complexly, experiential models are based on the whole period and precision of models is low. The whole icing period is divided into four sections： the icing period of rapid growth, the icing period of unstable growth, the stable icing period and the icing period of drop. It is put forward to build different forecast models according to different characteristics of different models. Compared with overall modeling, it is concluded that segmented modeling is better than overall modeling.

关 键 词：覆冰建模 覆冰周期 整体建模 分段建模 

分 类 号：TM754[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]