多态有奖马尔可夫学术期刊动态评价模型研究  

Research on the Dynamic Evaluation Model of the Academic Journal with Polymorphic Markov Chain

作　　者：张耀辉[1] 周森鑫[1] 李超[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学管理科学与工程学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《情报理论与实践》2016年第5期46-52,39,共8页Information Studies:Theory & Application

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学研究基金项目"2016年度安徽省高校自然科学研究重大项目"的研究成果;项目编号:KJ2016SD01

摘　　要：[目的/意义]学术期刊的评价能保证学术期刊的质量,促进学术期刊稳定健康的发展。针对学术期刊评价中动态的预测模型不多,提出了一种新的学术期刊动态评价模型。[方法/过程]确定评价期刊及其相类似的期刊集,按年份分别求出期刊集所有期刊的学术迹,在此基础上对标准化后的学术迹划分状态,确定状态转移概率,运用多态有奖马尔可夫构建动态评价模型。[结果/结论]以某期刊进行了实证分析,结果表明此模型能根据历史数据来预测学术期刊的发展情况,模型符合学术期刊的发展事实,可以在期刊评价中广泛进行运用。[局限]学术期刊动态评价模型比一般学术期刊评价模型计算复杂。[ Purpose/significance ] Evaluation of academic journal can ensure the quality of academic journal, and promote the stable and healthy development of academic journal. For the dynamic prediction model of academic journal evaluation is not too much, this paper proposes a new model for dynamic evaluation of academic journal. [ Method/process ] The paper determines the evaluation journal and similar periodical collection, and obtains the academic track of all journals in journal set according to the years. On the basis of this, the paper divides the status of standardized academic track, determines state transition probability, and constructs dynamic evaluation model by using polymorphic Markov chain. [ Result/conclusion] The paper takes one journal for the empirical analysis, and the result shows that the model can predict the development of academic journal according to the historical data. The model conforms to the development of academic journal, which can be widely used in journal evaluation. [ Limitations ] The dynamic evaluation model of academic journal is more complex than the general evaluation model of academic journal.

关 键 词：期刊评价 马尔可夫链 H指数 学术迹 

分 类 号：G255.2[文化科学—图书馆学]