基于最大偏差原则的群体性事件应急管理绩效评价模型  

Performance Evaluation Two-tuple Linguistic Model in Emergency Management of Mass Incident Based Maximal Deviation Principle

作　　者：刘德海[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]东北财经大学经济计量分析与预测研究中心,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2016年第4期138-147,共10页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571033;71271045);东北财经大学学科建设支持计划特色学科项目(XKT-201411)

摘　　要：群体性突发事件应急管理绩效评价具有价值判断冲突性、结构嵌入性和语义模糊性等非常规特征。针对群体性突发事件的矛盾对抗性特征,根据"着重解决群众反映意见较大的突出问题"的善后处置原则,构建了基于最大偏差原则的多属性评价模型。首先,在社会结构、应急策略和评价指标等多重维度下,构建了件应急管理绩效评价指标体系,包括效率、公平、收敛性、稳定性和适应性。其次,针对价值判断冲突特征,提出基于最大偏差原则的二元语义信息处理方法:偏差越大,表明该属性能够更好的反映出事态冲突性,应赋予越高的权重。最后,结合某住宅小区锅炉房拆迁案例的全样本调查数据进行实证分析。结果表明,相对于模糊综合评价模型和最小偏差原则的二元语义模型,基于最大偏差原则更能反映出群体性突发事件应急管理绩效评价的价值冲突性。How to evaluate the emergency management performance of mass incident is the key problem for policymaker to improve the social management. Performance evaluation of emergency management in mass incident has the unconventional characteristics with conflict of value judgment among stockholders, structural embedability that a mass incident happens in the special context of social structure, and linguistic fuzziness about the evaluation information. Considering the conflict of value judgment among local governmental officer, social vulnerable group and interest group, the 2-tuple linguistic model of performance evaluation is proposed with the maximal deviation principle. Firstly, the index system of performance evaluation of emergency management is build under the dimensions of social structure, emergent strategy and evaluating index, which includes efficiency, equity, convergence, stability and flexibility. Secondly, in accord with the disposal principles declared by Chinese government that local government should ＂facilitate the resolution of the outstanding issues with worse public opinion＂, the attribute should be given the higher weight because the larger deviation is, the better reflecting the conflict. Choosing the survey data of the boiler house demolition case in 2011 Dalian city, three multi-attribute decision-making models are compared with each others and the index sensitivity analysis is discussed. The strategy of neutral government as intercessor and the far-sighted strategy have the better performance, and the tit-for-tat strategy has the worst performance. Relative to fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and 2-tuple linguistic model with the minimal deviation principle, the maximal deviation principle is better reflected the conflict characteristic of value judgment. The contribution of this paper is a new problem in the field of emergency management is proposed, which is how to evaluate the emergency management performance of mass incident with conflict of value judgment among stockholders. The r

关 键 词：群体性突发事件 二元语义绩效评价 应急管理 最大偏差原则 多属性决策 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]