我国大豆供求形势及趋势预测  

Current Status and Tendency Predictions of Chinese Soybean Supply and Demand

作　　者：孙永珍[1] 刘卓[2] 闫琰 李铁林[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]山东财经大学金融学院,济南250014 [3]北京延庆农经站,北京102100 [4]石家庄铁道大学经济管理学院,石家庄050043

出　　处：《中国食物与营养》2016年第4期27-31,共5页Food and Nutrition in China

基　　金：2014年度河北省社会科学发展研究课题(项目编号:2014021414)

摘　　要：首先从供给、需求和贸易三个方面分析了我国大豆的供求现状以及影响因素,从自然条件、比较效益、政策支持水平和科技投入四个方面分析了导致大豆供求失衡的原因;其次对2020年我国大豆的生产和消费趋势进行了判断,在此基础上利用计量工具对生产和消费情况进行了预测;最后提出了发展大豆产业、减小供求缺口、提高大豆自给水平等对策。This paper analyzed Chinese soybean supply and demand situation and associated factors from three aspects including supply,demand and trade,investigated the causes of the disequilibrium of soybean supply and demand from four aspects including natural condition,comparative benefit,the level of policy support,and the investment of technology,conceived the tendency of Chinese soybean production and consumption in 2020,and applyed econometrics tools to predict the prospect of production and consumption. Finally,the paper proposed countermeasures to develop soybean industry,reduce the gap between supply and demand,and increase the self-sufficiency rate of soybean.

关 键 词：供求 因素 预测 对策 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]