重力模型在客运专线客流预测中的应用  

Application of Gravity Model in Forecasting Passenger Flow in Dedicated Passenger Transport Lines

作　　者：佟达[1] 刘晓溪[1] 安迪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《物流技术》2016年第4期47-49,共3页Logistics Technology

基　　金：中国铁路总公司重大课题"成网条件下高速铁路夜行列车运输组织及列车开行方案研究"(2015X004-A)

摘　　要：根据铁路客流影响因素以及高速铁路客流的性质选择了重力模型对客运专线客流进行短期预测,并通过对京沪线月均客流分布进行统计整理,利用重力模型对京沪客专沿线车站的客流分布进行OD反推,最后利用平均增长系数法对预测结果进行收敛调整,对比了预测客流分布和实际客流分布,验证并给出了重力模型可以在一定程度上对客流分布进行描述的方法,为制定列车开行方案提供有效的参考与帮助。In this paper, according to the factors influencing the railway passenger flow and the nature of the passenger flow in the highspeed railway transportation, we chose the gravity model to forecast the short-term passenger flow of the dedicated passenger transport lines,and then through collecting and analyzing the statistical data of the average monthly passenger flow distribution of the Beijing-Shanghai line,deduced backwardly the passenger flow distribution of the dedicated passenger stations along the line. At the end, we used the average growth coefficient process to converge and adjust the forecasting result, compared the forecast and actual distribution of the passenger flow, which demonstrated the feasibility of the gravity model in describing the passenger flow distribution to some extent.

关 键 词：客运专线 客流预测 重力模型 

分 类 号：F530.82[经济管理—产业经济]