扩大消费能跨越“上中等收入陷阱”吗?  

The Expansion of Consumption Can Cross the Upper-Middle-Income Trap?

作　　者：郑东雅[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学经济学院产业经济学系,讲师南京210093

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2016年第5期4-13,155,共10页Zhejiang Social Sciences

摘　　要：面对"中等收入陷阱"的挑战,很多学者提出要扩大消费,本文对这个渐趋主流的观点进行考察。首先运用1980—2010年89个国家(地区)的面板数据研究不同类型中等收入国家(地区)的消费模式。研究发现:跨越"下中等收入陷阱"的国家(地区)消费占比先下降,在8327美元左右消费占比开始上升,这似乎可以支持扩大消费有助于跨越"中等收入陷阱"的观点。但是,类似的U型消费模式会使上中等收入国家(地区)陷入"上中等收入陷阱"。而跨越"上中等收入陷阱"的国家(地区)消费占比一直在缓慢下降,这意味着要跨越"中等收入陷阱"非但不需要扩大消费,反而需要降低消费占比。其次对消费占比和实际人均国内生产总值的格兰杰因果关系进行检验。研究发现U型消费模式可能会导致上中等收入国家(地区)陷入"上中等收入陷阱",而消费占比一直下降的模式只是跨越"上中等收入陷阱"的前提条件。据此本文推断,目前认为消费占比应该增加的观点是非常危险的,它有可能会让中国陷入"上中等收入陷阱",对于目前的中国来说,我们应该继续压低消费、建立创新型经济、实现产业结构升级。This paper investigates gradually becoming the mainstream point of view which we should expand consumption to cross the middle income trap. First of all, we study the consumption mode of different types of middle-income countries, using the panel data of 89 countries from 1980 to 2010. The study finds that: the consumption ratio of countries crossing the lower-middle-income trap firstly decreases, then arises at about $8327, which seems to support the view that expansion of consumption is helpful to cross the middle income trap. However, similar consumption mode that the consumption ratio firstly decreases and then increases is the cause of upper-middle-income countries into the upper-middle-income trap. In fact, the consumption ratio of the countries crossing the upper-middle-income trap decreases all the time, which means to cross the upper-middle-income trap does not need to expand the consumption, but need to reduce the consumption ratio. Secondly, we examine the consumption ratio-real GDP per capita causality patterns. The study finds that the consumption mode which the consumption ratio firstly decreases and then increases may lead the upper-middle-income countries into an upper-middle-income trap, and the consumption mode which the consumption ratio decreases all the time is the prerequisite of crossing the upper-middle-income trap. We can induce, it is crucial for crossing the middle income trap to continue to hold down consumption,establish creative economy and realize the upgrading of industrial structure.

关 键 词：消费模式 经济增长 中等收入陷阱 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]