家庭观念、人口负担比与居民消费——基于2002-2014年山东省面板数据的实证分析  

Sense of Family,Demographic Burden Ratios,and Household's Consumption

作　　者：孙涛[1] 李成友[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济研究院 [2]山东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2016年第3期79-89,共11页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"中国居民消费特征的理论和实证分析"(11CJL016);山东大学自主创新基金青年团队项目"非正规制度变迁与中国居民消费储蓄的理论和实证分析"(IFYT12093)

摘　　要：本文将"婚姻家庭继承类纠纷民事诉讼率"作为一个重要的家庭观念代理变量,具体而言,设定一个地区"人均婚姻家庭继承类纠纷的一审收案数"测度该地区平均意义上"家文化"影响的强度。实证分析部分采用2002 2014年山东省17地市的面板数据,具体考察分析人口负担比对储蓄——消费影响关系中家庭观念的作用,研究结果表明人口年龄结构变量(少儿人口负担比、老年人口负担比以及总人口负担比)与居民消费率呈正相关关系,即满足生命周期假说,也与大量的已有实证研究结论相一致;人口年龄结构变量与婚姻家庭继承类民事纠纷诉讼率的交互项负向影响居民消费率,即更高的民事诉讼率表征更低的家庭情感紧密度、更低的家庭重要性认知,造成了对家庭中老年人和少儿的消费满足降低,并且,从显著性和估计系数来看,对少儿的影响要大于对老年人的影响。The article takes civil litigation rate for marriage, family and inheritance as an important proxy variable for cultural beliefs. Concretely speaking, setting the number of cases of first instance per capita for marriage, family and inheritance dispute to measure averagely strength of family culture. Applying the data of 17 districts in Shandong Province from 2002 to 2014, we study the effect of cultural beliefs involving demographic dependency on savings-consumptions. We find that the demographic age structure variables （such as young dependency rate, old dependency rate, and gross dependency rate） are positively related with household＇s consumption rate, which satisfies the life cycle hypothesis and is consistent with the most existing empirical studies. The interaction term of the demographic age structure variables and household＇s consumpfion rate is negatively related with household^s consumption rate, which indicates that the greater civil litigation rate the lower family intimacy, and thus, it decrease the consumption of elders and children. In addition, from the aspects of significance and coefficient, this effect on children is greater than on elders.

关 键 词：人口负担比 居民消费 家庭信念 婚姻家庭继承类纠纷民事诉讼率 

分 类 号：C913[经济管理] C924.24[社会学] F126.1