当代货币危机理论的演进与保罗·克鲁格曼的贡献  

Evolution of the Theory of Contemporary Currency Crisis and Contributions of Paul Krugman

作　　者：刘安国[1] 李仁贵[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院 [2]中国社会科学院经济研究所

出　　处：《经济评论》2016年第3期135-147,共13页Economic Review

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程项目"经济危机相关理论及其历史作用研究"资助

摘　　要：自20世纪70年代末以来,经济学家先后发展出四代理论模型研究国际货币危机成因、危机预测以及危机应对。本文针对克鲁格曼在发展四代货币危机理论方面所作的具体贡献进行综述,重点跟踪其货币危机理论的演进历程,分析其货币危机理论学说的启承关系、思辨逻辑、建模技术和学术思想的变化,指出其理论创新对货币危机、金融危机理论研究的引领作用与政策寓意。克鲁格曼货币危机理论的嬗变凸显出世界经济一体化背景下国际货币危机的"自我实现性"和复杂性:国际货币危机不能仅仅只在虚拟经济的框架内研究,在货币危机理论建模中引入政治生态、社会因素、文化传统、法律制度、产权制度和治理模式等因素也许可以帮助我们更好地解释、预测和应对未来的货币危机。Since 1970s,economists have developed four generations of theoretic model in explaining,predicting and curing currency crises.We make a survey of Krugman＇s contributions to the development of the four generations of theory of currency crises and point out the pioneering role of his theoretical innovation in advancing research on currency crises and financial crises with emphasis laid on the analysis of the relationship between different generations of his theory of currency crisis,his modeling technique,the logic of his theoretical thoughts,subtle changes of his theoretical thinking as well as policy implications of his theories.The evolution of Krugman ＇s theoretical thoughts on currency crises highlights the complexity and especially the self-fulfilling nature of international currency crises.It can be emphasized that it is inadequate to study international currency crises only within the framework of fictitious economy.An introduction of political ecology,social factors,cultural tradition,legal system,property rights,governance and other institutional factors may contribute more to our explaining,predicting and curing future currency crises.

关 键 词：金融理论 货币危机 金融危机 汇率政策 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]