中国区域食品价格差异收敛性检验——基于微观价格数据的空间计量与动态效应分析  

Testing the Regional Food Price Convergence in China:The Analysis of Space and Dynamic Effects Based on Micro Price Data

作　　者：王康[1] 王磊[2] 罗玉波[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872 [2]中国国际经济交流中心博士后工作站,北京100826 [3]北京工商大学经济学院,北京100048

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2016年第5期49-56,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<我国购买力平价(PPP)测算方法和实践研究>(14BTJ004);国家社会科学基金项目(青年项目)<基于分位数回归的时空数据分析及应用研究>(12CTJ008)

摘　　要：构建有别于以往文献的区域价格β收敛空间计量分析框架,实证研究了1994年以来中国食品价格差异收敛性及其动态变化特征。研究发现:1994年以来,中国食品价格收敛速度表现出了先减弱后增强的U型动态变化特征,而非此前文献所揭示的逐步增强,这是由改革红利的"螺旋效应"所致,且最近几年中国食品价格收敛性在走弱,应引起特别注意。对此,进一步的分析表明,主要原因可能包括三期叠加的宏观经济形势、有所抬头的新型贸易壁垒、食品消费结构升级以及国内宾大效应。This paper constructs the spatial econometric analysis framework for regional price β convergence which is different from previous studies, and empirically test the dynamic characteristics of food prices convergence since 1994. The study found, since 1994, China＇s regional food price convergence rate showed a U dynamic change characteristics-firstly weakened and then enhanced, rather than the gradually deepening revealed by previous literature. We believe that this is caused by the ＂spiral effect＂ of reform dividend. In recent years, China＇s regional food price convergence rate is weakening, which should be paid special attention. In this regard, further analysis shows that the main reasons may include the macroeconomic situation of the three periods superimposed, the rise of the new trade barriers, the upgrade of the food consumption structure, and-the effect of Penn.

关 键 词：相对价格水平 Β收敛 空间相关 动态效应 食品价格 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计] F031.4[理学—数学]