试析“联合全面行动计划”对伊朗核能力的影响  

The Impact of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's Nuclear Capability

作　　者：史建斌[1] 朱剑钰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国工程物理研究院战略研究中心

出　　处：《国际论坛》2016年第3期1-6,79,共6页International Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"当代国际核政治与我国国家安全研究"(项目批号:11&ZD181)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：为解决伊朗核问题而达成的"联合全面行动计划",给伊朗核能力发展设置了一条底线,确保伊朗核计划彻底的民用性;规划了一条红线,制定各项措施限制伊朗的核能力,把伊朗的"突破时间"延滞为至少12个月;铺陈了一条防线,通过设立"快速恢复制裁"机制,保留了对伊朗爽约或违约行为的约束;预埋了一条眼线,对伊朗核活动制定了有史以来最严格的监测与核查机制。四线齐下,在协议规定的期限内,伊朗核材料生产能力将大幅度缩减,利用已申报设施发展核武器的铀路径基本被封锁,钚路径彻底被卡断,而且不太可能秘密实施核武器计划而不被外界迅速察觉。The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JAPOC),was reached by Iran and P5 + 1 countries after over a decade of negotiations,to solve the Iran nuclear issue.It sets a bottom line to restrict the development of Iran's nuclear capability,ensuring the completely peaceful purpose of its nuclear program.It designs a red line,formulating measures to limit Iran's nuclear capability development and to delay Iran's breakout time for at least 12 months.It lays out a defense line,retaining the constraints on any of Iran's possible violation by establishing a mechanism of rcinstituting the sanctions.It embeds a monitor line,adopting a most strict monitoring and verification mechanism in history on Iran's nuclear activities.With the four-pronged approach,Iran's nuclear materials production capacity will be greatly reduced during the period of JCPOA implementation.Therefore,the uranium pathway to develop nuclear weapons by using declared facilities is blocked,and the plutonium pathway is eliminated.Meanwhile,Iran is unlikely to implement a covert nuclear weapons program without being quickly detected by the outside world.

关 键 词：伊朗核能力 联合全面行动计划 核武器 核材料 核扩散 

分 类 号：D51[政治法律—政治学]