基于Johnson分布体系的含风电场发电系统可靠性评估  

Johnson System Based Reliability Evaluation of Generation System with Wind Farms

作　　者：张立波[1] 程浩忠[1] 田书欣[1] 周勤勇[2] 贺海磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学),上海市200240 [2]中国电力科学研究院,北京市100192

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2016年第10期46-52,96,共8页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(51337005);国家电网公司基础性前瞻性科技项目(XT71-14-002)~~

摘　　要：提出了一种基于Johnson分布体系的多维变量建模方法,并将其应用于含风电场发电系统年度可靠性指标计算中。该方法利用风速历史数据和持续负荷曲线构建风速和负荷与标准正态变量的关系,即模拟风速和负荷的概率分布特征,进而通过模拟相关多维标准正态变量来实现对风速相关性的模拟,避免了因假设风速概率分布模型可能导致模拟精度低的缺点。通过算例分析,验证了算法在模拟负荷和风速分布时的精度以及应用于含风电场发电系统可靠性评估中的适用性。在此基础上分析了风电场风速相关性对含风电场发电系统可靠性指标的影响。A multiple-variable simulation method based on the Johnson system is proposed and applied in the annual reliability evaluation of a generation system with wind farms.By using the historical data of the wind speed and load duration curve,the relationship between wind speed and standard normal variable（SNV）and that between load and SNV are developed in the method,i.e.the characteristics of probability distribution of wind speed and load are simulated.Accordingly,correlated wind speeds are simulated by simulating correlated SNVs,thus avoiding possible low accuracy of simulation due to the assumption about the wind speed probability distribution model.The accuracy of the method in simulating the wind speed and load duration curve is verified,as is the adaptability in reliability evaluation of generation systems with wind farms.Finally,the influence of wind speed correlation on generation system reliability is analyzed.

关 键 词：发电系统 风电场 可靠性评估 Johnson分布体系 相关性 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TM732