社会群体事件的微博传播和复合生长曲线研究  

On the Mass Incidents and Composite Logistic Equation

作　　者：潘骏[1] 沈惠璋[1] 陈忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《情报杂志》2016年第5期72-78,125,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金重大项目"群体行为涌现机理及风险辨识研究"(编号:11&ZD174)研究成果之一

摘　　要：[目的/意义]有别于众多现有群体事件的定性理论研究,文章通过将复杂系统相关知识引入到社会群体事件的分析中来,以真实事件数据为基础、以定量分析方式为手段探讨了社会群体事件在微博网络中的传播机理。这些工作能帮助人们更进一步理解群体事件的网络传播,并对有效预测群体事件的走势提供理论支持。[方法/过程]结合复杂系统已有研究理论,将社会群体事件的微博网络传播过程理解为一类复杂系统的演化过程,通过构建Logistic生长曲线方程来刻画整个微博网络传播的演化机理特别是事件微博发言量的变化情况,并分析如何在摒弃复杂因素影响的情况下研究该系统的发展演化机理。[结果/结论]社会群体事件每一发展阶段的微博传播都是一种自组织演化过程且与事件相关的微博累积发言量遵循Logistic模型呈现出"S"型曲线的发展趋势;整个群体事件的微博传播曲线就是这些不同阶段"S"型曲线的持续组合并表现出螺旋上升的演化趋势。[Purpose / Significance]M ost of the papers discussing mass incidents available in China are just pure ＂ theoretical research＂ from the perspective of political science,sociology,law and management science. Instead of theoretical discussion,we choose to do analysis based on real data from previous incidents since we believe this method will make more sense to understand mechanism of mass incidents,and prediction as well. [Method / Process] To control the impact of these mass incidents,it requests governments to detect the incidents as early as they can. This paper brings some theories and methods of system self- organization to the research of formation mechanism,and the logistic equation of grow th curve evolution is built to analyze the self- organizing evolution. It can help people get chance to come up with better strategy to handle mass incidents in more effective and efficient way. [Result / Conclusion]Based on the investigation on real mass incidents from China,we find that complex system theory can be used in analysis of mass incidents. Furthermore,we can divide the w hole incident into several phases,and message broadcasting inside every phase can be explained well by logistic grow th curve evolution. The overall broadcast of whole incident is a compound logistic grow th curve.

关 键 词：社会群体事件 复杂系统 自组织 LOGISTIC方程 演化机理 

分 类 号：D669[政治法律—政治学]