太平洋年代际振荡对广东省雷暴日年际变化的影响  

RESPONSE OF GUANGDONG PROVINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITIES TO PDO PHASE VARIATION

作　　者：郭秀峰[1] 刘三梅 谭涌波[1] 张义军[3] 鞠晓雨[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,江苏南京210044 [2]广东省防雷中心,广东广州510080 [3]中国气象科学研究院大气探测所,北京100081 [4]安徽省气象局雷电防护中心,安徽合肥230001

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2016年第2期281-288,共8页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(编号:41075003;41175003;41503088);2014年江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(编号:KYZZ-0243)共同资助

摘　　要：探讨具有明显周期的大气涛动与雷暴活动之间的相关关系,对雷暴气候特征的变化趋势预测意义重大。以广东省54年的雷暴日年际变化为例,通过小波变换法对雷暴活动的年际变化周期进行研究,探索雷暴日与太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation,简称PDO)指数两者之间是否存在长周期的响应关系,经分析得出以下结论:广东省雷暴多发期大多出现在PDO冷位相时期,雷暴少发期多出现在暖位相时期;且广东省雷暴日存在明显的30年左右的振荡周期,与PDO的变化周期具有较好的对应关系,年平均雷暴日与当年3—7月的PDO指数相关性最好,相关系数达0.52,灵敏度达-619.1±135.7%,呈负相关。高雷暴日,与PDO指数的十年平滑值之间具有很好的相关性,两者相关系数可达0.77。The relationship between atmospheric oscillation and lightning activity is examined on prediction of climate trend. Composites of the interannual variability of thunderstorm days during 54 years in Guangdong province are used to study the interannual variation of thunderstorm activity cycle with the method of wavelet transform, and explore whether there is long-term corresponding relationship between the thunderstorm days and the Pacific Deeadal Oscillation （PDO） index. The result is shown as follows： The annual average thunderstorm days of Guangdong has an obvious oscillation cycle of about 30 years, which has a good correspondence with the change cycle of PDO; thunderstorms in Guangdong occur more frequently in the cold phase of PDO than in the warm phase; the best correlation is negative between annual average thunderstorm days and the mean PDO index from March to July ; Related coefficients of 10-year smoothed values can reach 0. 52, and the sensitivity of the former to later 10-year smoothed values can be as much as -619. 1 ±135.7%. High thunderstorms have good correlation with the 10-year smoothed values of the PDO index at a coefficient of 0. 77.

关 键 词：雷暴日 PDO 气候特征 相关性 年代际 

分 类 号：P434.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]