基于CPMs及LOSS的高速公路安全性评价  

Safety evaluation of freeway basic segment based on CPMs and LOSS

作　　者：孟祥海[1] 覃薇[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2016年第3期151-156,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：广东省交通运输厅科技项目(2012-2013)

摘　　要：为评价高速公路基本路段的交通安全状况,首先应用统计分布拟合及假设检验方法,分析京珠高速公路及粤赣高速公路基本路段上事故起数的统计分布特征,验证事故起数符合负二项(NB)分布;然后给出基于NB分布的路段划分方法,建立基于NB分布的事故预测模型(CPMs),并提出基于CPMs的路段安全性评价方法。其次引入交通安全服务水平(LOSS)概念,提出一种基于LOSS的路段安全性评价方法。最后分别用基于CPMs及LOSS的路段安全性评价方法,对京珠高速公路及粤赣高速公路基本路段进行安全性评价。结果表明,基于CPMs的安全性评价方法更适用于山岭重丘区的高速公路,而基于LOSS的路段安全性评价方法更适用于平原区的高速公路。Firstly, statistical distribution fitting and hypothesis testing methods were used to analyze the statistical distribution of crashes on the freeway segments. The result showed that the number of crashes on the segments followed the NB distribution. In order to evaluate safety situation of freeway＇s segment, a NB distribution-based segment division method was given. Furthermore, CPMs based on NB distribution were established, and a CPMs-based method was developed for evaluating the safety situation of freeway was proposed. Thirdly, a concept of LOSS was introduced, then a segment safety evaluation method based on LOSS was worked out. Both the CPMs-based method and the LOSS-based method were applied to Jingzhu freeway and Yuegan freeway. The evaluation results show that the method based on CPMs is more suitable for the freeways in mountainous and rolling areas, on the other hand, the method based on LOSS is more suitable for the freeway in plain areas.

关 键 词：交通安全 高速公路 事故预测模型(CPMs) 安全性评价 假设检验 负二项(NB)分布 安全服务水平(LOSS) 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]