天山南麓雷暴日短期预报研究  

Study on Thunderstorm Short-term Forecast in the Southern of Tianshan Mountains

作　　者：柳志慧 王式功[1] 尚可政[1] 孔德兵[1,2] 赵文婧[1] 王昀[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃省干旱与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国人民解放军95606部队气象台,重庆402361

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2016年第2期43-49,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：国家公益性(气象)行业专项项目(GYHY201306047,GYHY201206004);兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项(lzujbky-2013-m03)

摘　　要：利用阿克苏及邻近地区12个气象站1980—2013年雷暴资料,以及同期高空资料,统计了各站年均雷暴日数,对发生区域雷暴天气的环流形势进行分类,归纳出各型的入型指标。通过逐步回归法,建立阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴概率回归预报模型,并对2013年进行试预报。结果表明:(1)阿克苏及邻近地区区域雷暴的影响系统主要分为4类:巴湖低槽型、急流型、西北气流型和温度槽型。(2)对2002—2012年5—9月(共1683 d)历史资料进行判别,满足入型条件的样本数为876 d,消空率为48%;对2013年5—9月(共153 d)历史资料进行判别,入型样本数为80 d,消空率为48%。(3)对2002—2012年5—9月所有入型样本进行回代检验,平均准确率为72.0%(平均TS评分为30.1%);对2013年5—9月所有入型样本进行试预报,平均准确率为63.2%(平均TS评分为28.2%)。Based on the thunderstorm observation and sounding data from 12 meteorological stations in the Aksu and surrounding areas during 1980-2013, we defined the regional thunderstorm as the day there is more than three stations with thunderstorm weather.Finally the weather situation was mainly divided into 4 types： The Balkhash Lake low trough type, the jet type, the northwest airflow type and the temperature trough type. By constantly revise the critical value of the type indicator to achieve optimal results, and the type indicators are determined by the indicator of Balkhash Lake low trough type is trough≥f0（f0=80）, the jet type is stream≥f1（f1=160）or Umax≥f2 （f2=20）, the northwest airflow type is airflow≥f3 （f3=70）and the temperature trough type is t≥f4, （f4=1.5）. By this method and the data during 2002-2012 from May to September, the result showed that the number of samples meeting the indicator is 876, empty elimination rate is 48%. The result showed that the number of samples meeting the indicator is 80, empty elimination rate is 48% by using the data of 2013 from May to September. The method of identification weather type has greatly reduced the sample number and effectively improved the prediction. Backing to generation of test with all samples were elected to 4 weather types from May to September during 2002-2012, the average accuracy is 72.0% （the average TS score was 30.1%）;The forecast with all samples were elected to 4 weather types from May to September in 2013, the average accuracy is 63.2%（the average TS score was 28.2%）.

关 键 词：雷暴 环流分型 逐步回归方程 回代检验 试预报 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]