中国宏观税负政策偏向的经济波动效应  

The Economic Fluctuation Effect of China's Macro-level Tax Burden Policy Preferences

作　　者：杨灿明[1] 詹新宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学财政税务学院,教授武汉430073

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2016年第4期71-90,206-207,共20页Social Sciences in China

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大攻关项目(07JZD0011)后期研究成果;国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDB133);中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2015T80859)的资助

摘　　要：新常态下,中国税收收入增速趋缓,财政支出需求却在刚性增长。双重压力下,政府在决定宏观税负水平时,面临着"盯住税负稳定"、"盯住支出需求",还是同时兼顾这两者的"盯住双重目标"等多种政策选择。在扩展的动态随机一般均衡模型的框架下,分析宏观税负政策偏向的经济波动效应及其影响机制发现,宏观税负是影响中国经济波动的重要因素,在不同的宏观税负政策偏向下,主要宏观经济变量的波动幅度和趋于稳态所需时间存在显著差异。"盯住双重目标"模式较好地融合了税收政策的供给管理和需求管理效应,表现出更好的稳定效应。分税制改革以来,中国事实上实行的正是更加偏向于支出需求增长的"盯住双重目标"模式。In the new normal,the rate of increase in China's tax revenues is slowing,but the demands of mandatory fiscal expenditure are rising.Under this dual pressure,China faces various policy options:'stabilizing the tax burden,''fixing expenditure demand'or'setting dual goals.'Within the framework of an extended new Keynesian DSGE model,we carried out an analysis of the economic fluctuation effect of policy preferences on the macro-level tax burden and the mechanisms bringing about this effect.We found that the macro-level tax burden was an important factor in China's economic fluctuations.There are significant differences in both the extent of the fluctuation in key macroeconomic variables and the time required to approach a steady state under different macro-level tax burden policy regimes.The'setting dual goals'model satisfactorily integrates the effects of supply and demand tax policy management and has a superior stabilizing effect.Since its tax-sharing reform,China has in fact implemented precisely this'setting dual goals'model,with a bias toward expenditure demand.

关 键 词：宏观税负 财政支出 政策偏向 经济波动 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]