民勤绿洲水资源利用的综合效益评价  

Evaluation of the comprehensive benefits of water resources utilization in Minqin Oasis

作　　者：魏轩[1,2] 周立华[1,3] 陈勇[1] 路慧玲[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所沙漠与沙漠化重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2015年第6期1688-1696,共9页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-04-05)资助

摘　　要：水资源利用是民勤绿洲发展兴衰的关键影响因素.将民勤绿洲水资源利用的历程划分为三个典型时期——"以粮为纲"时期、改革开放时期、生态保护时期,并以其作为研究的特征时期,建立了民勤绿洲水资源利用综合效益评价的数学模型.利用网络层次分析法确定各项指标权重,基于网络层次分析法的运算结果,对民勤绿洲水资源利用的综合效益进行了定量评价,结果表明:"以粮为纲"时期,生态效益开始下降,水资源利用的效果欠佳;改革开放时期,经济效益和社会效益均明显增长,但生态效益出现新一轮下降,水资源利用的效果有利有弊;生态保护时期,尤其是石羊河流域重点治理规划实施之后,生态、经济和社会效益都开始上升,水资源利用的效果相对最佳.评价结果旨在为类似地区水资源利用政策措施的改进提供决策依据.Water resources utilization is the key factor for the development of Minqin Oasis.The course of water resources utilization in Minqin Oasis can be divided into three periods：the period of ＂take grain as the key link＂,the period of reform and opening-up and the period of ecological protection.In this paper,taking the three periods as the characteristic periods,a mathematical model for evaluating the comprehensive benefits of water resources utilization in Minqin Oasis was established.The weight of each index is determined by using analytic network process （ANP）.Based on the results of analytic network process,the comprehensive benefits of water resources utilization in Minqin Oasis were quantitatively evaluated.It is found that：in the period of“take grain as the key link”the ecological benefits began to decrease,the water resources utilization had defi-cient effect;in the period of reform and opening-up, both the economic and social benefits increased significantly,but the ecological benefits had a new round of decrease,the water resources utilization had both advantages and disadvantages;in the period of ecological protection,especially after the implementation of key management planning in the Shiyang River basin, the ecological, economic and social benefits all have increased,the water resources utilization have had a relatively best effect.The evaluation will help the decision-maker to improve water resources utilization policies and measures in similar areas.

关 键 词：水资源利用 效益评价 民勤绿洲 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]