城市环境空气质量对经济增长和人口集聚的敏感度及区域分异——以第一阶段实施新空气质量标准的74个城市为例  

Sensitivity Degree and Regional Difference of City Environmental Air Quality to Economic Growth and Population Aggregation: Taking 74 Cities Implementing New Air Quality Standard at the First Stage for Example

作　　者：王兴杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第6期14-18,43,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2013BAC03B05)

摘　　要：明确城市环境空气质量的敏感因素和敏感度,是改善城市环境空气质量的基础和前提。以第一阶段实施新空气质量标准的74个城市为例,基于逆数据包络分析模型,估算城市环境空气质量对经济和人口因素的敏感度。结果表明:GDP、工业增加值、建筑业增加值、固定资产投资、财政收入和人口密度指标分别提高5%,城镇化率提高1个百分点,74个城市环境空气质量将分别下降0.124%、0.165%、0.376%、0.466%、0.097%、0.390%和0.739%,各区域和各城市环境空气质量敏感因素和敏感程度差异较大,珠三角>长三角>京津冀;西部>东部>中部>东北。环境空气质量对人口集聚的敏感程度大于经济增长的敏感度。如不尽快推动经济转型升级,适度、有序推进城镇化,实现全面建成小康社会的目标和新型城镇化的目标都将总体降低城市环境空气质量。It is the foundation and precondition to specify sensitive factors and sensitivity degree of city environmental air quality for the improving of city environmental air quality. Taking 74 cities implementing new air quality standard at the first stage for example, based on inverse data envelopment analysis model, we estimate the sensitivity of city environmental air quality to economic and population factors. The results show that： if the indices of GDP, industrial added value, architectural added value, fixed assets investment, financial revenue and population density increase respectively by 5% and urbanization rate increases by 1%, environmental air quality of the 74 cities will decrease respectively by 0.124%, 0.165%, 0.376%, 0.466%, 0.097%, 0.390% and 0.739%. There is much difference on sensitive factors and sensitivity degree of environmental air quality of various regions and various cities, Pearl River Delta〉Yangtze River Delta〉Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei, West〉East〉Central Region〉Northeast. Sensitivity degree of environmental air quality to population aggregation is larger than that to economic growth. If we cannot propel the transformation and upgrading of economy as soon as possible, and push forward the urbanization moderately and orderly, the target of building a well-off society in an all-round way and the target of achieving new-type urbanization will in general reduce city environmental air quality.

关 键 词：经济增长 人口集聚 城市 环境空气质量 效率 敏感度 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]