中国能源消费影响因素分析与预测——基于协整与误差修正模型  

Analysis and Forecast of China's Energy Consumption Influence Factors: Based on Cointegration and Error Correction Model

作　　者：苏素[1] 杨腾[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《生态经济》2016年第6期73-76,共4页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"天然气资源的经济安全重大问题"(1010200320110172)

摘　　要：为了探索2014年国家发改委提出的“到2020年一次能源消费总量将控制在48亿吨标准煤”的目标是否能够实现,基于1953~2014年的统计数据,选取国民收入、能源价格、第二产业增加值比重以及总人口数量四个因变量,通过协整及误差修正模型研究了能源消费的短期波动及长期均衡的状况,随后建立了短期误差修正模型的动态预测,结合长期均衡模型配合情景分析法,得出了2020年我国能源消费总量的预测结果。从结论来看,国民收入在短期和长期,都是影响能源消费最重要的因素;能源价格对能源消费的影响日益显著,主要得益于能源价格机制市场化改革,第二产业比从短期来看对能源消费有显著影响,而随着时间的推移,这种影响将会越来越小。通过预测发现,两种不同的方法得出的结果都要比发改委提出的目标限定值要高。所以,要实现2020年能源消费总量控制在48亿吨标准煤的目标,任务比较艰巨,需要通过多个影响因素协调配合。In order to explore the National Development and Reform Commission proposed ＂the total energy consumption will be controlled in whether to achieve the goal of 48 million tons of standard coal till 2020＂ in 2004, this paper selected national income, energy prices, the second industry added value than the weight and total population four dependent variables from 1953 to 2014 which by cointegration and error correction model to study the short-term fluctuations in energy consumption and long-term equilibrium, then we established the short-run error correction model of dynamic prediction. Combining with the long-term equilibrium model with scenario analysis method, it is concluded that the 2020 China＇s total energy consumption prediction results. From the conclusions we know that, the national income not only the short but also long term is the most important factor affecting the energy consumption; increasing impact of energy prices on energy consumption, mainly due to the market-oriented reform of energy price mechanism, the second industry than in the short term on the energy consumption has significant influence, and with the passing of time, this influence will become smaller and smaller. By predicting that two different methods, the results turn out to be higher than the development and Reform Commission has proposed, therefore, to achieve the 2020 total energy consumption control targets in 48 million tons of standard coal, the task is difficult, which demands coordination and cooperation with multiple factors.

关 键 词：能源消费 协整 误差修正模型 情景分析法 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]