人类速度的极限已经到来?——解析世界纪录的进展与未来  

Is the Human Physiological Boundary Coming?——Analysis on World Records' Progression and Future

作　　者：冯狄[1] 曹天宇 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《中国体育科技》2016年第3期79-84,109,共7页China Sport Science and Technology

基　　金：哈尔滨工程大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目资助(HEUCF151607)

摘　　要：使用ARIMA数学模型和独立样本t检验对径赛项目和游泳项目的1 825条世界纪录数据进行统计分析,通过对每年世界纪录产生的数量和破纪录的概率,分析纪录产生背后的社会因素、经济因素、文化因素、历史因素及科技因素。结果表明,径赛和游泳的世界纪录发展走势显示了以下特征:1912—1928年是破纪录的第1个上升期,之后开始下降;第2个上升期起始于1943年,1976年以后开始呈下降走势,但2008年和2009年的破纪录率却非常高,数据与平均数值反差较大。破纪录的低谷期有4个时间段:第1阶段是1913-1918年,第2阶段是1939-1946年,第3阶段是1990-1997,第4阶段是2010-2014年。未来30年破世界纪录概率将维持在一个稳定而极低的水平值发展(0.16),在人类现有的基因、形态、科技等条件没有改变下,世界纪录很难会再有爆发式的增长。通过对1950年以前和1950年以后开展的径赛、游泳项目破纪录年均值独立样本t检验统计发现,1950年以后开展的运动项目是1950年以前开展的运动项目的破纪录概率的2倍左右。这也可以说明,越是开展晚的项目,破纪录的概率越大。研究认为,科技发展是破纪录概率提高至关重要的因素;战争等历史因素严重阻碍体育运动的发展;兴奋剂的使用成为破纪录"盛况"的始作俑者;体育与商业的结合改变了体育训练比赛的传统方式,运动员的身体变得更脆弱,运动寿命缩短;动作技术、运动环境和运动力学3个方面的差异造成了游泳项目的成绩提高空间要高于田径项目中的跑步项目。The author used mathematical models to analyze world records in track and swim events in order to find out the social factors,economic factors,historical factors and scientific factors that have affected the progression of world records.Method：1825pieces of swimming and track events world records were analyzed by ARIMA model and independent sample t test.The results showed that the progression of the world records in track and swimming events demonstrated the following characteristics：new WR rate rose in 1912-1928 years initially,then the rate began to decline;the second rise period started in 1943,the rate began a downward trend after 1976 except that in 2008 and 2009,the new WR rate was much higher than average number compared to the year between 1976-2014.The results also showed 4periods of troughs in new WR rate：the first period was 1913-1918,the second was 1939-1946,the third was 1990-1997,and the last one was 2010-2014.In following 30 years,the world records are difficult to have explosive growth.The probability of new world records will be maintained at a stable and very low level of rate（0.16）,provided the human gene and morphology,technology and other conditions are not changed.The other finding of this paper was that annual mean of new WR of events started after 1950 was almost2 times than that of events started before 1950.Conclusions：Science and technology were the driving factors for the improvement of new WR rate;war seriously hindered the development of sports;doping was contributed to the peak period of new WR rate;the combination of sports and business changed sports training and competition theories,consequently,athlete＇s body becomes more fragile,and sports life shortened.The reasons for swim events showing higher annual mean of new WR than track events are the differences in sports techniques,movement environment and the sports mechanics.

关 键 词：世界纪录 人类极限 历史 未来 进展 

分 类 号：G811.8[文化科学—体育学]