农户灌溉适应行为及对单产的影响：华北平原应对严重干旱事件的实证研究  

The adaptive irrigation behavior of farmers and impacts on yield during extreme drought events in the North China Plain

作　　者：杨宇[1,2] 王金霞[3] 黄季焜[3] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学商学院,成都610059 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所农业政策研究中心,北京100101 [3]北京大学现代农学院,北京100871

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第5期900-908,共9页Resources Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB955700);国家自然科学基金重大国际合作项目(71161140351);加拿大国际发展研究中心(IDRC)项目(107093-001)

摘　　要：华北平原作为中国的粮食主产区和严重干旱事件发生频繁的区域,如何提高该区域农户灌溉适应能力对保障中国的粮食安全具有十分重要的意义。基于华北5省889个农户的1663小麦地块的实地调研数据,运用两阶段的思路构建计量经济模型,定量分析了农户实施灌溉适应行为的影响因素和评估其成效。研究结果表明:(1)相比于相对正常年,在受灾年中严重干旱事件的发生显著地促使农户提高了约17.4%的灌溉频次,同样也增加了约6.6%的小麦单产损失;(2)灌溉适应行为的确在抵御和减缓严重干旱事件对小麦单产产生的负面影响上起着显著的积极作用,具体而言,每增加50%的灌溉次数(相当于增加0.9次),可以挽回14.2%的小麦单产损失;(3)良好的农田水利设施条件对农户灌溉行为产生显著的正向效果。例如,相比于农田水利设施较差地区,一般和较好地区的农户灌溉强度分别显著地提高了约13.2%和18.0%;(4)农户种植规模、户主年龄以及教育水平等农户家庭特征也显著地影响农户的灌溉行为。As an important agricultural production region and vulnerable region hit by drought in China,improving the irrigation adaptation capacity of farmers in the North China Plain（NCP）is of vital significance to food security in China. Using a large-scale survey of 1663 wheat plots of 889 households in five provinces in the NCP from the end of 2012 to early 2013,we built two- stage econometric models to quantitatively analyze the determinants of irrigation adaptation measures and assess the impacts of adaptation measures on wheat yield. We found that when wheat is shocked by severe drought,irrigation times significantly increase by 17.4% and the loss of wheat increases by 6.6% compared to the normal year. Irrigation adaptation measures play a significant and positive role in mitigating the adverse impacts of extreme drought events on wheat production.Specifically,losses will reduce by 14.2% with an increase of in 50% irrigation time（amounting to 0.9 irrigation times）. Good water infrastructure plays an important role in adopting irrigation measure. For instance,relative to townships with irrigation of rural water infrastructure below average,farmer irrigation measures（average and above average）significantly increase irrigation times by 13.3% and 18.0% respectively. Household characteristics,such as farm size,age and education of household head have significant impacts on irrigation behavior. We discuss adaptation irrigation policy implications that governments should promote and popularize in dry areas to improve irrigation infrastructure investment in the NCP,especially in areas with bad water conservancy conditions.

关 键 词：严重干旱事件 灌溉适应行为 灌溉成效 华北平原 

分 类 号：S423.2[农业科学—植物保护]