基于双栏模型的三江平原湿地生态保护价值评估  

Ecological value evaluation of the Sanjiang Plain Wetland based on the Double-Hurdle Model

作　　者：敖长林[1] 董育宁[1] 焦扬[1] 张昆[1] 董利娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学管理科学与工程系,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《资源科学》2016年第5期929-938,共10页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171044)

摘　　要：由二分式条件价值评估法得到的样本数据,通常会包含零观察值,以往研究中的支付意愿函数模型和Tobit模型未能妥善处理零观察值,降低了评估结果的准确性。针对零观察值问题,本文通过构建支付意愿的双栏模型,将零观察值纳入CVM数据分析,提出了双栏模型参数估计方法。以三江平原湿地生态保护价值为例,得到黑龙江省居民的平均支付意愿为127.93元(/人·年),低于支付意愿函数模型的计算结果134.58元(/人·年),高于Tobit模型的计算结果102.52元(/人·年),得到2010年三江平原湿地生态保护价值为49.01亿元/年。研究结果验证双栏模型可以避免因删除零观察值而导致估算结果的高估及将所有零值归为真实零观察值所导致估算结果的低估。通过比较两栏的结果发现,收入、了解程度、游玩次数等影响因素在两方程中的作用不同,表明参与和支付是两种不同的机制,需要区分处理。研究结论为CVM研究中零观察值的处理提供新的途径,为生态环境管理提供决策参考依据。The Contingent Valuation Method is a kind of non-market valuation method that combines social investigation and statistical analysis. The Contingent Valuation Method is the most popular and influential valuation method among various non-market valuation methods and has been widely used in the evaluation of non-use value of environment and resources. Data derived from the Contingent Valuation Method usually contains zero observations. The Willingness-To-Pay （WTP） function model and Tobit mode do not deal with zero observations adequately and this reduces the accuracy of estimations. Focusing on the issue of zero observations, we constructed a double-hurdle model of WTP to fit zero observations into CVM data analysis. Using the ecological protection value of the Sanjiang Plain Wetland as an example, we determined that the mean WTP of citizens in Heilongjiang Province is 127.93 CNY a year per person; the result of WTP function model is 134.58 CNY a year per person; and the result of Tobit model is 102.52 CNY a year per person. The estimation result is lower than that of the WTP function model and higher than the Tobit model, the ecological value of the Sanjiang Plain Wetland in 2010 is 4.90 billion CNY per year. The results verify that the Double-Hurdle Model can avoid overestimating WTP lead by deleting zero observations and the underestimate caused by classifying all zero observations as genuine zero observations. By comparing two hurdles, we found that factors such as income, level of acknowledgment and times of visits act differently in the two hurdles. Participation and payment are two kinds of mechanisms that need to be treated accordingly. This study offers a reference for future CVM research dealing with zero observations.

关 键 词：条件价值评估法 零观察值 双栏模型 三江平原湿地 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]