SWAT模型在兰江流域未来径流模拟中的应用  

Application of SWAT in Runoff Simulation of Lanjiang River Basin

作　　者：张徐杰[1] 朱聪[1] 程开宇[1] 富强[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,浙江杭州311122

出　　处：《浙江水利水电学院学报》2016年第2期13-16,共4页Journal of Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power

摘　　要：结合IPCC气候排放情景和多个大气环流模式集合数据,进行空间降尺度和时间降尺度处理,通过SWAT模型模拟兰江流域未来三个不同时期的径流变化情况.结果表明,SWAT模型在该流域有较好的径流模拟能力,兰江流域未来径流与基准期相比大致呈减少趋势,其中秋季减少最为严重.不同排放情景下径流减少有所不同,其中A2情景下径流减少最为明显.Combined with the IPCC climate emissions scenario and multiple atmospheric circulation pattern collection data,spatial scale and time scale processing based on SWAT Model are discussed to simulate the runoff changes of Lanjiang watershed in three different period in the future. Results show that the SWAT Model carries better ability in runoff simulation in the basin. Compared with the baseline period,the future runoff in Lanjiang basin roughly shows a decreasing trend,especially in autumn. Runoff decrease is different under different emission scenarios,while the runoff reduction under A2 scenario is most obvious.

关 键 词：气候变化 SWAT 大气环流模式 径流变化 降尺度 

分 类 号：P338.2[天文地球—水文科学]