国道214线鄂拉山至清水河段多年冻土地温预测模型研究  

Research of Prediction Model of Permafrost Temperature of National Road 214 from Ela Mountain to Qingshui River

作　　者：刘德平[1,2] 汪双杰[2] 王彩勤[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司,陕西西安710068 [3]西安科技大学,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2016年第5期53-60,共8页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAG05B01;2014BAG05B03);交通运输部科技项目(2012 319 495 030);多年冻土地区公路建设与养护技术交通行业重点实验室青海研究观测基地开放基金项目(20100504006)

摘　　要：为了研究国道214线沿线多年冻土地温情况,为多年冻土地温预测提供依据,根据国道214线的地温监测资料,首先对国道214线进行综合地温分区,采用非线性拟合算法对各地温分区进行曲线拟合,得到7个地温分区的地温曲线拟合模型。根据此预测模型对国道214线地温分布进行了预测计算,计算结果表明:理论地温剖面曲线与该地区实测地温剖面曲线形态相似;地温随深度变化趋势基本一致,稳定地温理论值与实测值相同,稳定地温深度也基本一致;用该地温预测分段函数模型进行的地温断面曲线预测,总体趋势预测良好。To acquaintance the permafrost temperature of National Road 214 and to provide necessary support for ground temperature prediction,according to the ground temperature monitoring data of National Road 214,first,comprehensive ground temperature partition of the road is performed,the curve fitting for such partition is conducted with non-linear fitting method,and geothermal curve fitting models of 7 subregions is obtained.Second,according to the forecasting model,the ground temperature distribution of National Road 214 is predicted. The calculation result shows that（ 1） the profile curve of theoretical ground temperature is similar to the profile curve of measured temperature in the region;（ 2） the trend of temperature varying with depth is basically the same,the theoretical value of the stable temperature is basically the same as the measured value,and the stable ground temperature depth is also basically the same;（ 3） the overall forecast trend of the ground temperature profile curve obtained by the piecewise function model for ground temperature forecast is good.

关 键 词：道路工程 预测模型 非线性拟合 冻土地温 

分 类 号：U416.168[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]