气候变化情景下黄淮海区域热量资源及夏玉米温度适宜度  

Thermal resources and summer maize temperature suitability in the Huang-Huai-Hai region under future climate change

作　　者：李萌[1,2] 申双和[1,2] 吕厚荃[3] 韩艳[4] 褚荣浩 沙修竹 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/江苏省农业气象重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [3]中国气象局国家气象中心,北京100081 [4]河南大学环境与规划学院,河南开封475004 [5]河南省人工影响天气领导小组办公室,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2016年第3期391-399,共9页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106020);干旱气象科学研究资助项目(GYHY201506001)

摘　　要：利用黄淮海区域90个站点1971—2000年逐日气象资料以及国家气候中心发布的未来气候变化情景(A1B)下区域气候模式(Reg CM3)模拟的黄淮海区域1951—2070年0.25°×0.25°格点气象资料,结合夏玉米主要生育期对温度的需求,构建了黄淮海区域的温度适宜度和变异系数模型,并对1951—2070年黄淮海区域热量资源、夏玉米主要生育期的温度适宜度及其变异系数的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:1)黄淮海区域≥10℃积温和80%保证率下日平均温度≥10℃的初日均呈现由北向南依次增加的趋势,且随时间推移,分别呈增加和提前趋势。2)黄淮海区域夏玉米播种—出苗期的温度适宜度随时间整体呈逐渐上升的变化趋势、其变异系数随时间呈降—升—降的变化趋势;出苗—抽雄期的温度适宜度随时间呈先降后升的变化趋势、其变异系数呈降—升—降—升的变化趋势;抽雄—成熟期的温度适宜度空间上呈现2010年前北低南高、未来情景下中部低四周高的分布趋势,时间上呈2010年前稳定、未来情景下先降后升的变化趋势,其变异系数呈相反变化趋势;3)黄淮海区域夏玉米温度适宜度及其变异系数从播种—出苗期—出苗—抽雄期—抽雄—成熟期均呈反相位的变化关系。Based on the daily meteorological data of 90 stations for the period 1971 to 2000 and daily 0.25° × 0.25°gridded meteorological data under the A1 B climate scenario（1951—2070） extracted from the regional climate model RegCM3 released by the National Climate Center,a temperature suitability and coefficient of variation（CV） model for the Huang-Huai-Hai region was built,combing with the growth demand of summer maize for temperature.The spatial and temporal variations of thermal resources,summer maize temperature suitability and its CV in the Huang-Huai-Hai region for the period 1951-2070 were analyzed.The Huang-Huai-Hai area has distinct dry and wet seasons.The heat resources are particularly important for the growth of summer maize.The analysis of this region in this paper against the background of climate change,is aimed at improving the efficiency of the utilization of climate resources,and providing a scientific basis for summer maize planting.The results showed that：（1） The accumulated temperature of 10 ℃ with a guaranteed rate of 80%in the Huang-Huai-Hai region showed a gradually increasing trend from north to south,increasing over time.（2） The first day of 10 ℃ with a guaranteed rate of 80%in the Huang-Huai-Hai region showed a gradually increasing trend from north to south,advancing over time.（3） In the stage of seeding to emergence,the temperature suitability showed a trend of rising firstly and then falling,with the CV falling firstly and then rising over time.In the stage of emergence to heading,a falling-rising-falling trend was apparent,with the CV showing a falling-rising-falling-rising trend over time.In the stage of heading to maturity,spatially,the temperature suitability was higher in the south than the north before2010,but showed a future pattern of being higher in the center than the surroundings.Temporally,it was stable before 2010,but showed a falling followed by rising pattern for the future,which was opposite to the pattern for the CV.（4） The temperature suit

关 键 词：夏玉米 热量资源 温度适宜度 变异系数 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学] S513[农业科学—农业基础科学]