基于抽样的不确定性及敏感性分析的方法在核电厂水膜蒸发试验误差分析中的应用  

Aplication of the Sampling-Based Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Method in Error Analysis of Heated Flat Plate Test at NPP

作　　者：扈本学[1] 王喆[1] 王国栋[1] 王章立[1] 倪陈宵[1] 张今朝[1] 杨萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海核工程研究设计院,上海200233

出　　处：《核安全》2016年第1期84-89,94,共7页Nuclear Safety

基　　金：国家科技重大专项;项目编号2011ZX06002-0056

摘　　要：与传统的误差分析方法相比,基于抽样的不确定性及敏感性分析具有较大的优势。本工作通过耦合DAKOTA程序和水膜蒸发试验数据分析程序,开发了水膜热态试验误差分析方法,计算得到了试验目标参数水膜蒸发换热乘子的不确定性范围,并且分析了试验测量参数的不确定性对蒸发换热乘子不确定性的影响。计算结果表明,水膜入口流量、入口风速以及平板表面温度是主要的不确定性来源。这为优化试验测量系统,减小试验误差提供了定量支持。该方法可以用于其他试验误差分析以及参数重要性分析。Compared with traditional error analysis methods,uncertainty and sensitivity analysis based on sampling has great advantages. Method for error analysis of heated flat plate test has been developed by coupling DAKOTA code and data evaluation program. Uncertainty of evaporation ratio has been calculated and effects of measured parameters uncertainty on evaporation ratio have been analyzed. The calculated results show that inlet film flow rate, inlet air flow velocity and plate surface temperatures are the main sources of the uncertainty, which provide support for measure system optimization to reduce the error range. This method could be applied to the error analysis for other tests and parameters importance analysis.

关 键 词：sobol方法 试验误差分析 敏感性分析 水膜蒸发试验 

分 类 号：TL364[核科学技术—核技术及应用]