基于系统动力学模型的煤炭企业安全成本研究  

Study on safety cost of coal companies based on systematic dynamics model

作　　者：朱朦[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《煤炭工程》2016年第5期139-141,145,共4页Coal Engineering

摘　　要：针对传统的煤炭企业安全成本研究多为静态研究,存在片面性的问题,采用系统动力学模型对煤炭企业安全成本进行动态、全面的研究。分析了煤炭企业安全成本的构成及影响因素,并通过分析各影响因素之间的相互关系,建立了煤炭企业安全成本的系统动力学仿真模型。运用动态建模工具"vensim"进行仿真模拟,通过历史检验证明模型调试结果良好,可用于实际工作中进行使用,为提高煤炭企业安全成本预算的准确性和管理的目标性提供科学、系统的依据。Since most existing studies on the safety cost of coal companies are conducted with static methods,to overcome the associated limitations,a systematic dynamics model is developed to perform a dynamic and complete evaluation on the safety cost of coal companies. The composition and influencing factors of safety cost of coal companies are analyzed at first.Then,the systematic dynamics model for safety cost of coal companies is developed based on the mutual interactions of those factors. Finally, the model simulation is conducted with the dynamic modeling tool ＂ vensim ＂, and the effectiveness of the model is validated by calibrating with historical data. Thus,the developed model can be applied in the practice.

关 键 词：煤炭企业 安全成本 影响因素 系统动力学模型 

分 类 号：TD-05[矿业工程]