开都河-孔雀河流域相对资源承载力时空演变特征分析  

Spatio-temporal variability of relative carrying capacity of resources in the Kaidu River-Kongque River Basin

作　　者：王长建[1] 汪菲[2] 文斌[3] 

机构地区：[1]广州地理研究所广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室,广东广州510070 [2]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [3]黄淮学院经济管理系,河南驻马店463000

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2016年第3期444-452,共9页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金(41501144);新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室"新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源实验室基金"(XJDX0909-2015-03)~~

摘　　要：以干旱区开都河-孔雀河流域为例,利用改进的相对资源承载力模型,计算2000-2011年该流域的相对资源人口承载力和相对资源经济承载力,探讨流域内6个县市相对资源承载力的时空演变过程及差异特征。研究表明:1)以巴音郭楞蒙古自治州(简称巴州)为参照区域,经济资源和土地资源是承载开都河-孔雀河流域可持续发展的主要资源,而水资源对于开都河-孔雀河流域人口和经济的承载能力相对较弱。2)近十年来开都河-孔雀河流域相对资源人口承载状态为非常富余,人口富余度由2000年的7.4%演变为2011年的2.8%;经济承载状态由严重超载转变为超载,经济超载度由2000年的5.1%演变为2011年的2.4%,其中受库尔勒市的经济严重超载度的影响作用巨大。3)从时间和空间的角度分析,开都河-孔雀河流域各县市的相对资源综合经济承载状态具有一定的稳定性,人口承载力呈现出各自的差异变化。4)依据相对资源承载力的匹配类型,将开都河-孔雀河流域6个县、市分为四类区域,并基于不同县、市的发展实际提出相应的可持续发展策略,为协调开都河-孔雀河流域的人口流动与经济布局提供决策参考,为整个塔里木河流域的绿洲可持续发展提供借鉴指导。Regional sustainable development is based on its natural resources and economic resources. Using an improved model of the relative carrying capacity of resources （RCCR）, we calculate the relative carrying capacities of the population and the economy in the Kaidu River-Kongque River Basin in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2011. Then, the spatio-temporal variability in RCCR of 6 prefectures and cities in the Kaidu River-Kongque River Basin were analyzed. Taking the Bayangol Mongol Autonomous prefecture as the reference area, the Kaidu River-Kongque River Basin＇s relative superior resources are economic resources and land resources, while the relative disadvantage resources are water resources. Relative resource population carrying state is always ＂very surplus＂, the degree of population carrying state changed from 7.4% in 2000 to 2.8% in 2011. Relative resource economy carrying state changed from ＂severe overloading＂ to ＂overloading＂, the degree of economy carrying state changed from 5.1% in 2000 to 2.4% in 2011. As for the 6 prefectures and cities in Kaidu River-Kongque River Basin, Korla City have the largest surplus degree of relative carrying capacity of population and economic resources, and other towns＇ relative carrying capacity of economic resources have a certain stability, but relative carrying capacity of population resources performed the changes in the respective differences. According to the bearing state of relative carrying capacity of population and economic resources, we classified 6 cities and towns into four matching models and the characteristics were described.

关 键 词：相对资源人口承载力 相对资源经济承载力 可持续发展 开都河-孔雀河流域 

分 类 号：F303.4[经济管理—产业经济]