负担还是红利:新疆人口迁入与经济增长关系的量化研究  

Burden or Dividend:Quantification Research on the Relations between population In-migration and Economic Growth in Xinjiang

作　　者：欧阳金琼[1,2] 麦尔旦.吐尔孙 王雅鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]塔里木大学经济管理学院,新疆阿拉尔843300 [2]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《西北人口》2016年第3期111-116,共6页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AGL004);国家社科基金项目(12XJY004);新疆兵团社科基金项目(13YB21)

摘　　要：针对新疆人口净迁入急剧减少、人才流失加剧、劳动力出现有限供给,政府劳动力政策出现偏差等现象,分别从贡献率与边际效应两个视角对人口迁入与经济增长的关系进行了量化研究。根据改进后的经济增长率分解法测算了人口迁入对经济增长的贡献率后发现,1978-2013年,人口净迁入使新疆经济年均增长1个百分点。根据新古典经济增长核算理论与拓展的C-D生产函数测算了劳动力对经济增长的边际效应后发现,人口净迁移率每提高1个百分点,经济增长率可以提高0.24个百分点。量化研究的结果表明,新疆一直以来是我国主要的人口迁入地区,人口迁入并不构成新疆经济发展的负担,反而为经济发展带来了红利。Aiming at the phenomena including sharp decrease of pure population immigration, intensified talents drainage,limited supply in labor force, government policies deviation in labor forces and so on, this project implements a quantitative research on the relationships between population immigration and economic growth from contribution rate and marginal effect respectively. It is discovered from the contribution rate of population immigration to economic growth calculated by improved decomposition method of economic growth rate that the pure population immigration makes the average annual economy increase 1 percent in Xinjiang from 1978 to 2013. It is discovered from the marginal effect of labor force to economic growth calculated by new classic economic increase theory that the economic rate can increase 0.24 percent for every 1 percent increase of net rate of population migration. It is shown from quantitative study result that Xinjiang has always been the main population immigration area in our country,and immigration brings benefits to economic development instead of economic development burdens in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：新疆 有限供给 人口净迁移率 增长率分解法 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]