计及风电不确定性的多目标电网规划期望值模型与算法  

The Expected Model and Algorithm of Multi-Objective Transmission Network Planning Considering the Uncertainty of Wind Power

作　　者：胡源[1] 别朝红[1] 宁光涛 高玉洁[2] 

机构地区：[1]电力设备电气绝缘国家重点实验室,西安交通大学,西安710049 [2]海南电网公司,海口570203

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2016年第10期168-175,共8页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：电力设备电气绝缘国家重点实验室(西安交通大学)自主研究课题(EIPE14106);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(优先发展领域)(20130201130001);国家自然科学基金(51577147)资助项目

摘　　要：在多目标电网规划模型的基础上,提出利用基于三点估计的概率潮流考虑风电不确定性的方法,采用三点估计原理计算风电场的出力,从而在多目标电网规划中将含有风电的不确定性多目标规划期望值模型转换为可求解的确定性模型。该方法对原始输入信息要求低,易于和多目标规划模型相结合,同时具有计算量适中、准确度高和适用范围广泛等优点,从而为考虑风电场出力的不确定性提供了一种有效的工具。使用IEEE 24节点测试系统验证了所提方法的正确性和有效性。This paper presented a three-point estimation method to calculate the probabilistic power flow, considering the uncertainty of wind power in multi-objective transmission network expansion planning. Herein, the power outputs of wind farm were sampled, and the uncertain multi-objective transmission network planning model was transformed into a solvable deterministic model. Compared with other algorithms of probabilistic power flow, such as algorithms based on Monte Carlo simulation and analytical method, the presented method needs less input information, and can easily combine with the multi-objective transmission network planning model. Besides, this method also has the advantages of low computational amount, high accuracy and wide generalization. Therefore, the presented method is effective to deal with the uncertainty of wind power in transmission network planning. Finally, the IEEE 24-bus test system was adopted to verify the presented method and algorithm.

关 键 词：多目标电网规划 三点估计 概率潮流 风电不确定性 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]