可持续发展综合评价建模研究  

RESEARCH ON COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

作　　者：褚正清[1] 朱家明[2] 刘家保[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽新华学院公共课教学部,安徽合肥230088 [2]安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《井冈山大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第3期14-19,共6页Journal of Jinggangshan University (Natural Science)

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201312216030;201312216031;201312216032);安徽省质量工程项目(2014msgzs168);安徽新华学院特色课程项目(2012tskcx04;2012tskcx05);大学生素质教育研究中心建设项目(IFQE201419)

摘　　要：基于PREEST系统模型,提出了一系列全面的可持续发展评价体系。同时,采用主成分分析法和层次分析法对苏丹的综合可持续发展指标进行实证分析。然后,根据DEA模型分析苏丹在未来20年的可持续发展计划。构建了人口、资源、环境、经济、科学等五个子系统,从五个子系统中选取39个指标。通过主成分分析法得到五个子系统的发展指数,并利用层次分析法计算五个子系统的权重。结合发展指数与权重的五个子系统,得到了苏丹的综合指数。再对苏丹每年可持续发展的效率进行评价,并提出了20年的可持续发展规划。Based on PREEST system model, we propose a series of comprehensive sustainable development evaluation system. Meanwhile, we make the empirical analysis towards comprehensive sustainable development indicators of Sudan with the principal component analysis and AHP. Furthermore, we make a sustainable development plan for Sudan about the next 20 years according to DEA analysis model. We Constructs five subsystems, such as population, resources, environment, economy, science, and so on, from the five sub system to select 39 indicators. We get the development index of five sub systems through principal component analysis. We also use the analytic hierarchy process to calculate the weight of the five subsystems. Combined with the development index and the weight of the five sub systems, we get the comprehensive index of Sultan. This paper evaluates efficiency of the sustainable development of each year in Sudan, and provides it a sustainable development plan for 20 years.

关 键 词：可持续发展 PREEST系统 DEA 综合分析 主成分分析 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济]