中韩自贸区建立对两国主要产业的经济影响分析——基于中韩自由贸易协定的关税减让方案  

Analysis of the economic influence of the establishment of the ChinaKorea FTA on their major industries based on the tariff reduction schedules of the bilateral FTA negotiation

作　　者：周曙东[1] 肖宵[1] 杨军[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2016年第5期116-129,共14页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD160);"江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)"资助

摘　　要：本文根据中韩自贸区谈判的关税减让表,采用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)模拟分析了中韩自贸区的实施对两国各产业的影响。结果显示,中韩双边关税削减会带来巨大的贸易创造,两国的GDP、进出口、福利和居民收入均增加,对韩国各产业的影响大于中国。两国普通产品和敏感产品关税取消后,中国的纺织、服装、电子产品、石油化学产品和金属非金属产品,韩国的其他制造业、石油化学产品、皮革、服装和动物及其产品将会获益;而中国的其他制造业、运输设备、动物及其产品,韩国的电子产品、运输设备、木材造纸和谷物则会受到一定负面影响。如果超敏感产品关税也取消,中国的加工食品、韩国的谷物和其他作物将受到较大冲击。In this study, according to the tariff reduction schedules of China and South Korea FTA negotiations, we analyze the impact of the implementation of the China- Korea FTA on the two countries＇ various industries by using the GTAP model. The results show that the bilateral tariff reductions between China and Korea would generate trade, increase the GDP for both countries, boost import and export, raise welfare and income, and that the impact on the Korean industry would be greater than on the Chinese industry. After eliminating the two countries＇ tariffs on ordinary and sensitive products, China＇s textile, clothing, electronic products, petrochemical products and metal or nonmetal products, and Korea＇s other manufactured products, petrochemical products, leather, clothing and animals and their products will benefit from the process of trade liberalization. However, China＇s other manufactured products, transportation equipment, animals and their products, and Korea＇s electronic products, transport equipment, paper or wood and grains will be subject to certain negative effects. If the two countries＇ ultra- sensitive products＇ tariffs are cancelled, China＇s processed food, Korea＇s grains and other crops will suffer a huge shock.

关 键 词：中韩自贸区 谈判方案 产业影响 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F752.5[经济管理—国际贸易]