中国经济结构性减速时代的来临  

The Advent of the Era of China's Economic Structural Slowdown

作　　者：韩永辉[1] 黄亮雄[1] 邹建华[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院 [2]中山大学岭南学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2016年第5期23-33,共11页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“‘一带一路’建设与中国制造:战略转型与价值链提升”(71573058);国家自然科学基金青年项目“区域互动视角下中国产业结构调整的推动机制及影响效应研究”(71403062)资助;教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“进一步扩大服务业开放的模式和路径研究”(14JZD021)

摘　　要：本文从产业结构调整视角,研判中国经济结构性减速时代的来临并预测中国未来20年的经济增长速度。对产业结构合理化和高度化的传统测度指标进行完善,基于1978—2012年省域数据,利用非参数面板模型均值估计和逐点估计方法,实证检验了中国产业结构调整与经济增长的关系。结果显示,中国产业结构合理化和高度化都显著促进了区域经济增长,但无论采用合理化还是高度化指标,结构调整效应的产出弹性均随产业结构的调整、资本积累和劳动投入的增加而呈现"倒U型"动态演进过程。当前,中国整体正处在"倒U型"曲线的拐点,面临从"结构性加速"向"结构性减速"转变的困境。经济增速的预测表明,中国经济增长将在2013—2017年进入"7时代",在2018—2022年进入"5时代"甚至"4"时代。With the perspective of industrial structure adjustment, it studies the advent of the era of China＇s economic structural slowdown and forecasts economic growth rate of China in the coming 20 years. Firstly, it improves traditional indicators which measures the rationalization and supererogation of industrial structure. Furthermore, basing on the data of China＇ s provinces from 1978 to 2012, it uses the method of mean and point-wise estimation in nonparametric panel data to analyse the relationship between China＇ s industrial structure adjustment and economic growth. The results show that rationalization and supererogation of China＇ s industrial structure both accelerate regional economic growth significantly. However, the Output elasticity of structure optimization and supererogation show an inverted U-shaped trend with the adjustment of industrial structure, accumulation of capital and increase of labor. China is on the inflection point of the inverted U-shaped curve, facing the dilemma of transition from Structural Acceleration to Structural Reduction. By forecasting the economic growth rate, it indicates that China＇s economic growth would enter ＂the era of 7＂ in 2013-2017 and ＂the era of 5＂ even ＂the era of 4＂ in 2018-2022.

关 键 词：产业结构调整 经济增长 非参数面板估计 结构红利 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]