不同陆面过程参数化方案模拟效果评估  

Evaluation of Simulation Results for Different Parameterization Schemes of Land Process

作　　者：谢菲[1] 何宏让[1] 张云[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象海洋学院,江苏南京211101

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2016年第9期210-215,220,共7页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划(973计划)(2014CB441405);国家科技部公益性气象行业科研专项项目(GYHY201006031);中国气象局气象软科学项目(2012-053)

摘　　要：[目的]模拟南京及其周边一次区域雾天气过程变化过程。[方法]利用2013年12月6日NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料为初始场,采用WRF模式对陆面过程参数化方案进行了敏感性数值试验,利用相关系数、平均偏差、平均绝对偏差、观测值的标准偏差、模拟值的标准偏差等对各参数化方案下的物理量的模拟效果进行评估,并与南京站的地面常规观测资料进行对比。[结果]不同陆面过程参数化方案对大雾天气过程的模拟结果是敏感的,不同的参数化方案模拟的地面温湿风存在较大差异,其中SLAB方案模拟结果可信度最高,偏差范围最小,且各变量的偏差均呈现正态分布状态。[结论]此次大雾过程中相对湿度、温度露点差、地面温度等变量的模拟效果较好,可将其作为判别指标,为后期提高雾过程预报准确率提供依据。[Objective] To simulate the process of fog weather in Nanjing and its surrounding area. [Method] With NCEP 1° × 1° reanalysis data on December 6,2013 as the initial field,sensitive numerical experiment on parameterization schemes of land process was carried out by WRF mode. Simulation effects of physical quantity in parameterization schemes was evaluated by using the correlation coefficient,mean deviation,mean absolute deviation,standard deviation of observed value,standard deviation of simulated value. The results were compared with the ground routine observation data in Nanjing Station. [Result] Simulation results of fog weather were found to be the most sensitive by different parameterization schemes of land process. Surface moist wind simulated by different parameterization schemes had relatively significant differences. Among them,SLAB＇s scheme had the highest reliability of simulation results with the smallest deviation range. The deviation of each variable showed normal distribution state. [Conclusion] The simulation results of relative humidity,dew point temperature difference and surface temperature are consistent with the measured data. So they can be used as criterions and provide basis to improve the fog forecast accuracy in later period.

关 键 词：区域雾 数值模拟 效果评估 陆面方案 

分 类 号：S16[农业科学—农业气象学]