绝经后非糖尿病妇女骨质疏松症影响因素的Logistic回归和ROC曲线分析  

Analysis of influential factors of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women without diabetes with logistic regression and ROC curve

作　　者：李茂蓉 黄薇[1] 欧小虹[1] 姜艳[2] 夏维波[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市海淀医院,北京大学第三医院海淀院区,100080 [2]中国医学科学院北京协和医学院北京协和医院内分泌科卫生部内分泌重点实验室,100730

出　　处：《中国骨质疏松杂志》2016年第5期540-544,共5页Chinese Journal of Osteoporosis

摘　　要：目的观察绝经后非糖尿病妇女骨质疏松症的影响因素,探讨影响骨质疏松的关键因素。方法选取北京市海淀区社区共343名48~86岁的中老年绝经后非糖尿病妇女,开展相关问卷调查,并对其进行骨密度测定。结果343名绝经后非糖尿病妇女骨质疏松症患病率为42.6%;单因素Logistic分析显示年龄、年龄、文化程度、产次、体质指数（Body Mass Index,BMI）、血清碱性磷酸酶（Alkaline Lipase,ALP）是骨质疏松的可能影响因素（P〈0.05）。多因素Logistic分析显示高龄、高ALP是中老年绝经后妇女骨质疏松发病的可能影响因素,高BMI是其的可能保护因素。ROC曲线分析表明联合BMI、ALP、年龄的曲线下面积（Area Under the Curve,AUC）为0.761,敏感性68.71%,特异性72.08%,最佳诊断临界值为0.437。结论绝经后非糖尿病妇女骨质疏松症患病率较高,年龄、ALP、BMI为影响骨质疏松的关键因素。Objective To observe the influential factors of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women without diabetes,and to provide reference for the prevention of the disease. Methods A questionnaire was sent to a total of 343 women（ from 48 to 86 years old） from Haidian District,Beijing,and bone mineral density was detected. Results The prevalence of osteoporosis in 343 elderly women was 42. 6%. A single factor analysis showed that age,education,status,BMI,and ALP were all osteoporosis risk factors（ P〈0. 05）. Multivariate analysis showed that aging and high ALP were possible risk factors for osteoporosis in postmenopausal women without diabetes,while high BMI was the possible preventive factor. ROC curve analysis showed that combined with BMI,ALP,and age,AUC was 0. 761,sensitivity was 68. 71%,specificity was 72. 08%,and the optimal threshold was 0. 437. Conclusion The prevalence of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women without diabetes is high. The main influential factors were age,BMI,and ALP.

关 键 词：骨质疏松 LOGISTIC回归 ROC曲线 绝经后妇女 

分 类 号：R68[医药卫生—骨科学]