基于经济损失的风险优先值排序方法研究及应用  

Research and application of risk priority number ranking method based on the economic losses

作　　者：关玉明[1] 刘慧娟[1] 刘琴[1] 王锡瑞[1] 许波[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学机械工程学院,天津300130

出　　处：《工程设计学报》2016年第3期217-221,共5页Chinese Journal of Engineering Design

摘　　要：针对传统失效模式和影响分析(FMEA)中风险优先等级(RPN)分析方法存在的离散性、重复性,以及灵敏度低、准确性差等缺陷,提出了一种基于经济损失的风险优先值排序方法——ERPN(risk priority number ranking method based on the economic losses).该方法采用定性与定量相结合的方式,首先确定某潜在失效情景的严重度,然后根据相关数据确定某初始事件发生概率以及此潜在失效情景所导致的经济损失,用两者的乘积作为ERPN值.该方法直接可观,可操作性强,具有较好的工程实用性.将其与基于反向鱼骨图的结构分解、基于情景的失效分析相结合,综合应用在自动包装生产线的送膜包覆装置的失效分析中,取得了很好的效果.Aiming at the defects of conventional Risk Priority Number（RPN）methodology in Failure Mode and Effects Analysis（FMEA）,such as discreteness,repeatability,low sensitivity and low accuracy,a new approach based on the economic losses named ERPN was proposed.The proposed approach consisted of two stages：qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.The first stage aimed at determining the severity of a potential failure situation while the main task of the second stage was to calculate the probability（P）of the initial event and the economic losses（E）,then took the product of the two（Pand E）as the ERPN value.The new method is direct and objective and has strong maneuverability and good practicability.Besides,reverse fishbone diagram was applied to decompose the structure and the scenario theory was utilized to help analyze the failure situation.Finally,this method was used to deal with the risk priority evaluation of the failure modes of the membrane sending and packing device in the automatic packaging production line,and a satisfactory result was obtained.

关 键 词：失效分析 经济损失 ERPN排序方法 反向鱼骨图 工程实例 

分 类 号：TH11[机械工程—机械设计及理论]