基于灰色模型的湖南省能源碳排放预测分析  

Prediction and Analysis of Energy Carbon Emission in Hunan Province Based on Grey Model

作　　者：舒懿 周跃云[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学建筑与城乡规划学院,湖南株洲412007

出　　处：《湖南工业大学学报》2016年第2期58-62,共5页Journal of Hunan University of Technology

摘　　要：通过模型计算2008—2013年湖南省因能源消耗而导致的碳排放、地均碳排放、人均碳排放、碳排放强度等碳排放量指标;基于灰色模型对湖南省未来5年能源碳排放量进行预测。研究结果表明,湖南省能源消耗仍以工业方面的能源消耗为主,且所占比重较大;对于清洁能源使用率还有较大的上升空间;经济发展水平对湖南省能源碳排放量影响较大。预测结果表明,从能源消耗结构上来看,工业能源消耗正在逐渐下降;从能源消耗的种类上来看,对清洁能源的使用率正在增加,但其速率相对于经济增长仍然较缓慢。因此,要促进湖南省低碳发展还需要进一步调整产业结构,增加清洁能源的使用。By model calculation of the carbon emission, carbon emission per square kilometer, per capita carbon emission and carbon emission intensity in Hunan Province from energy consumption in 2008—2013, predicts the energy carbon emission in Hunan Province in the next five years based on grey theory. The research results indicate that the energy consumption in Hunan province is still mainly in terms of industrial energy consumption, and the proportion is larger. For clean energy usage, there is a large increase space, and the level of economic development has a great impact on the energy carbon emission of Hunan Province. The predicted results show that from the energy consumption structure, the industrial energy consumption is gradually declining; from the energy consumption types, the use of clean energy is increasing, but its rate is still slow relative to the economic growth. Therefore in order to promote the development of low carbon in Hunan Province, it needs to further adjust the industrial structure and increase the use of clean energy.

关 键 词：灰色模型 湖南省 能源碳排放 地均碳排放 人均碳排放 

分 类 号：X-01[环境科学与工程]