基于系统动力学模型的公路甩挂运输碳减排效果分析  

Effects of the Drop-and-Pull Transportation Mode on Mitigation of Carbon Dioxide Emissions based on the System Dynamics Model

作　　者：李红启[1] 李嫣然[1] 常馨玉 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2016年第3期514-519,526,共7页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(71202016)

摘　　要：采用系统动力学模型对由卡车运输和甩挂运输构成的公路货运行业运行过程进行模拟,分析甩挂运输对于公路货运业实现节能减排的意义,比较有关政策对公路货运行业开展甩挂运输的影响效果。借助理论分析,构建能够为公路货运业的甩挂运输政策选择提供决策参考的SD模型;借助实例运算,论证现阶段甩挂运输对公路货运业实现节能减排的重要作用;依托SD模型的政策模拟优势,提供针对公路货运业发展甩挂运输的组合式的政策措施。A system dynamics model is developed to simulate the highway freight transportation system that includes truck transportation and drop-and-pull transportation（i.e.,tractor and semitrailer as transportation tools）.The aims are to demonstrate the importance of drop-and-pull transportation for energy-saving and emission-reduction in highway freight transportation,and to show the impact of difference policies.The system dynamics model is likely to provide reference on policy selection for developing drop-and-pull transportation.Applying the model on a realistic instance,we demonstrate the importance of drop-and-pull transportation and propose an integrated policy scheme.

关 键 词：公路运输 甩挂运输 CO2排放 系统动力学 政策模拟 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]