金融发展与产业结构升级:长期均衡与短期动态关系  

Study on Long-term Equilibrium Relationship and Short-term Dynamic Relationship between Financial Development and the Upgrading of Industrial Structure

作　　者：罗超平[1] 张梓榆 王志章[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆北碚400715

出　　处：《中国软科学》2016年第5期21-29,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14XJY026);国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(11&ZD047);中央高校基本科研基金重大培育项目(SWU1509400);国家社科基金重点研究项目(批准号:12ASH004)

摘　　要：本研究在梳理国内外研究成果的基础上,构建了金融发展对产业结构升级影响的VAR模型,并通过协整检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解就金融发展对产业结构升级影响的长期均衡与短期动态关系进行了考察,研究发现:(1)金融经营效率、金融规模、金融产出率、金融结构比率和产业结构升级率存在长期均衡关系;(2)金融规模对产业结构升级影响显著;(3)金融结构比率和金融经营效率对产业结构升级在长期表现出显著影响,而短期内影响较弱;(4)金融产出率对产业结构升级在长期表现出较弱的影响,而短期内影响显著。政策建议是适当控制金融规模,合理引导信贷投向;完善证券市场投资制度,拓展企业直接融资渠道;鼓励民营资本进入金融领域,以良性竞争提升金融服务效率;完善利率市场化机制,理顺资源配置途径;改革商业银行经营体制,提升银行经营效率。On the basis of combing the domestic and foreign research results, the paper used VAR model to analysis the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-lerm dynamic relationship of financial development and the upgrading of industrial structure. And the following conclusions are achieved： （1） There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among financial management efficiency, financial scale, financial productivity, Financial structure and the upgrading of industrial structure ; （ 2 ） The financial scale showed significant effect on the upgrading of industrial structure; （ 3 ） Financial structure ratio and financial management efficiency showed significant effect on upgrading of the industrial structure in long-term, and weak impact in the short term; （4） The financial productivity showed weak impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in long-term, and significant effect in the short term. Finally, this paper puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions： appropriately control the financial scale, guide our orientation in credit; improve the system of stock market investment, expand enterprise direct financing channel; encourage private capital into the financial sector in order to enhance the efficiency of financial services healthy competition; improve the mechanism of interest rate marketization and rationalize the allocation of resources; reform commercial bank management system and improve management efficiency of the bank.

关 键 词：金融发展 产业结构升级 金融规模 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]