河北省碳源碳汇测算及碳减排压力分析  

Carbon Emission Estimation and Reduction Pressure Analysis in Hebei Province

作　　者：胡欢[1] 章锦河[1] 熊杰[1] 周珺[1] 孙晋坤[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学国土资源与旅游学系/南京大学人文地理研究中心,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2016年第3期61-67,共7页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"旅游地生态效率评价模型及测度研究"(41271161)

摘　　要：低碳经济发展模式得到世界各国的重视,全球经济发展面临巨大的节能减排压力,碳排放已成为国内外学者的研究热点之一。在经济新常态下如何保证在经济稳健快速发展的基础上降低碳排放量,是河北省当前亟待解决的重要课题。该文基于IPCC温室气体清单的测算方法,首先,建立河北省碳源碳汇的科学核算体系,从碳源、碳汇、净碳源三方面测算了2000-2013年河北省的碳排放量,研究其历时性变化特征;其次,运用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对河北省2014-2030年的碳排放强度进行预测;最后,分析了不同碳减排目标情景下其碳减排潜力与压力,提出碳减排管理措施,为该地区制定碳减排计划,发展低碳经济提供决策支持。研究表明:1)河北省碳源总量从2000年的32 959.21万t逐年增加到2013年的151 765.12万t,增加了360.46%,年均增长率为12.46%,能源消费是最主要碳源,工业过程碳排放增幅最大。2)同期,人均碳源、碳汇和单位面积碳源、碳汇也逐年增加,净碳源持续增加,但碳排放强度降低。3)2014-2030年,河北省碳减排压力系数均大于1,其中2016-2020年是关键的碳减排期,碳减排任务艰巨。Low carbon economic development model has been paid attention to by all countries in the world.The global economic development is facing agreat pressure of energy saving and emission reduction.In the background of the economic new normal,it is an important issue to reduce the carbon emissions based on the steady and rapid economic development in Hebei Province.The paper established the scientific accounting system of carbon sources and sinks in Hebei Province,based on the IPCC greenhouse gas inventory calculation method.First,it estimated the carbon emissions and researched the diachronic variation characteristics from three aspects of carbon sources,carbon sinks,net carbon sources during 2000-2013 in Hebei Province.Then it used GM（1,1）grey prediction model to forecast the carbon emission intensity in Hebei Province from 2014 to 2030.Finally,it analysed the carbon emission reduction potential and pressure in the different reducing carbon emission targets.It proposed carbon management measures to support the region to make carbon reduction scheme and develop low carbon economy.The results were as follows：1）The total amount of carbon sources in Hebei Province increased from 32 959.21×104 t to 151 765.12×104 t during2000-2013,with an increase of 360.46% and an average annual growth rate of 12.46%.Energy consumption was the main carbon sources,the industrial carbon emissions increased fastly.2）In the same period,carbon sources and carbon sinks of per capita and per unit area increased year by year,net carbon sources continued to increase,but carbon emission intensity decreased.3）In the future of 2014-2030,the carbon emission reduction pressure coefficient is greater than 1,the time of 2016-2020 is the key time of carbon emission reduction,facing a difficult carbon emission reduction task in Hebei Province.

关 键 词：碳排放清单 碳源碳汇 碳减排潜力 碳减排压力 河北省 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]