2015/2016年超强厄尔尼诺事件气候监测及诊断分析  

Monitoring and Diagnosis of the 2015/2016 Super El Nio Event

作　　者：邵勰[1] 周兵[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2016年第5期540-547,共8页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB955901)资助

摘　　要：文章基于国家气候中心现行厄尔尼诺监测和诊断业务规范,分析了2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件的现状及其演变过程,并将之与1982/1983年以及1997/1998年厄尔尼诺事件做对比。监测结果表明,2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件是自1951年以来继1982/1983年和1997/1998年厄尔尼诺事件之后的第三次超强厄尔尼诺事件,并且在持续时间、峰值强度、累计海温距平和海温距平连续超过2.0℃的时间等指标上均强于前两次超强厄尔尼诺事件。赤道中西太平洋的多次西风爆发过程驱动次表层异常暖海温东传,使得厄尔尼诺事件发展。与前两次超强厄尔尼诺事件对比发现,2015/2016年厄尔尼诺事件盛期暖海温中心强度和范围较前两次事件偏小,南方涛动强度较前两次偏弱,西风爆发过程中西风异常强度也小于前两次事件。Based on the current standard of National Climate Centre,China Meteorological Administration,the recent status and evolution of the 2015/2016 El Nino event are introduced and compared to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 El Nino events.Monitoring results show that the 2015/2016 El Nino event is the third super El Nino event since 1951 after the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events,and it exceeded the former two super events based on the index of duration,peak intensity,accumulated SSTA and the months in which SSTA consecutively exceeds 2.0°C.The several westerly bursts over the equatorial central-western Pacific drove the eastward propagation of the anomalous warm sub-SST,resulting in the development of the El Nino event.The intensity of the warm SSTA center in the peak period of 2015/2016 event is weaker,and the range is smaller than the former two super El Nino events,so is the intensity of the anomalous westerly in the westerly bursts.

关 键 词：厄尔尼诺 监测标准 海表温度 热容量 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]