RCP4.5情景下长江上游流域未来气候变化及其对径流的影响  

Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Under RCP4.5 Scenario

作　　者：黄金龙[1,4] 王艳君[2] 苏布达[1,2,3] 翟建青[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081 [4]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《气象》2016年第5期614-620,共7页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430205和2012CB955903);中德合作组项目GZ912共同资助

摘　　要：基于1961—2010年长江寸滩以上流域50个气象站的逐日观测数据和寸滩水文控制站的逐日径流数据,结合流域的地形、土地利用和土壤信息,采用HBV和SWAT水文模型,模拟了流域降水径流定量关系,并利用CCLM区域气候模式,开展了气候变化背景下,寸滩未来径流的可能演变趋势分析。结果表明:HBV和SWAT水文模型都适用于位于湿润地区的长江寸滩以上流域,月径流的模拟Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数都在0.90以上。相比较,SWAT水文模型对于枯水径流的模拟较差,HBV水文模型峰值流量的模拟高于实测。相对于基准期(1986—2005年),RCP4.5情景下,2011—2040年寸滩以上流域平均气温、最高气温、最低气温将明显增加,并呈持续上升趋势;流域降水也有一定的增加,但2030年后呈弱减少趋势。从两类水文模型对径流模拟的集合结果来看,2011—2040年年径流将上升14.2%;而径流量的概率分布尾部特征及径流分位数变化进一步表明,流域的未来峰值流量预计将有所增大。Based on the daily meteorological data of 50 weather stations and daily runoff data from the Cuntan Gauging Station,HBV and SWAT hydrological models were calibrated and validated by using DEM,land use data and soil texture information.Possible impact of future climate change on river runoff was analyzed through forcing HBV and SWAT models by CCLM dynamic downscaled climatic data.The results show that both of HBV and SWAT models are suitable for simulating monthly river runoff in the Cuntan catchment,with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of about 0.90 in the calibration and validation period.But it is also clear that the SWAT is good at simulating floodpeak value while HBV has good performance on baseflow value.Compared with baseline period（1986 — 2005）,mean temperature,maximum temperature and minimum temperature in the Cuntan catchment will increase obviously with persistent rising trend by CCLM in 2011 — 2040 under RCP4.5 scenario.Annual precipitation is also expected to rise a bit in 2011— 2040,but will decrease slightly since 2030.From the ensemble mean of the two hydrological modeling results and changes in runoff quantile,we can see that the annual runoff will increase 14.2%with probability of higher flood volumes in 2011-2040 than 1986-2005.

关 键 词：气候变化 水文模拟 寸滩以上流域 

分 类 号：P426[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P467