基于灰色预测模型的延安旅游客流研究  

The Research of Tourist Flow in Yan'an City Based on the Grey Forecasting Model

作　　者：王红艳[1] 刘苗[1] 

机构地区：[1]延安大学历史文化与旅游学院,延安716000

出　　处：《价值工程》2016年第18期176-178,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：灰色预测模型是定量预测精度较高的一种模型。本文运用灰色预测模型的建模过程和模型精度检验,选取2011-2014年延安的旅游客流量作为原始数据,建立延安市旅游客流量的时间序列模型,经检验,该模型预测精度可靠。依据该模型,计算出2015-2018年的延安市旅游客流量。经预测,2015-2018年的延安市旅游客流量会继续呈增长态势,且发展态势较好,预计2017年全市接待国内外游客将突破5000万人次。根据对预测数据的分析,本文提出应从加强红色旅游体验项目、提升基础设施建设、加强智慧旅游城市建设和提升旅游服务等方面提升延安红色旅游的可持续发展。b The grey forecasting model has a high precision in tourist flow. Based on the grey system theory ,selecting 2011-2014 touristflow as the original data, the time series model of Yan＇an tourist flow is established, and the model is tested, and the model is reliable.Based on this model, the tourist flow of Yan＇an from 2015 to 2018 is calculated. By forecasting, the tourist flow will continue to grow anddevelop well in 2015-2018. It will breakthrough 5000 thousands of people in 2007. According to the forecast data analysis, it is proposed tostrengthen red tourism experience project to improve infrastructure, strengthen the wisdom of urban construction and tourism promotion andother aspects of tourism services to enhance the sustainable development of red tourism in Yan＇an.

关 键 词：延安市 灰色系统理论 灰色预测模型 旅游客流量 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]