Application of Importance Sampling Method in Sliding Failure Simulation of Caisson Breakwaters  

作　　者：王禹迟 王元战 李青美 陈良志 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory for Simulation & Safety of Hydraulic Engineering,Tianjin Key Laboratory of Harbor and Ocean Engineering, Tianjin University

出　　处：《China Ocean Engineering》2016年第3期469-482,共14页中国海洋工程（英文版）

基　　金：financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51279128);the Innovative Research Groups Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51321065);the Construction Science and Technology Project of Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China(Grant No.2013328224070)

摘　　要：It is assumed that the storm wave takes place once a year during the design period, and Nhistories of storm waves are generated on the basis of wave spectrum corresponding to the N-year design period. The responses of the breakwater to the N histories of storm waves in the N-year design period are calculated by mass-spring-dashpot mode and taken as a set of samples. The failure probability of caisson breakwaters during the design period of N years is obtained by the statistical analysis of many sets of samples. It is the key issue to improve the efficiency of the common Monte Carlo simulation method in the failure probability estimation of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. In this paper, the kernel method of importance sampling, which can greatly increase the efficiency of failure probability calculation of caisson breakwaters, is proposed to estimate the failure probability of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. The effectiveness of the kernel method is investigated by an example. It is indicated that the calculation efficiency of the kernel method is over 10 times the common Monte Carlo simulation method.It is assumed that the storm wave takes place once a year during the design period, and Nhistories of storm waves are generated on the basis of wave spectrum corresponding to the N-year design period. The responses of the breakwater to the N histories of storm waves in the N-year design period are calculated by mass-spring-dashpot mode and taken as a set of samples. The failure probability of caisson breakwaters during the design period of N years is obtained by the statistical analysis of many sets of samples. It is the key issue to improve the efficiency of the common Monte Carlo simulation method in the failure probability estimation of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. In this paper, the kernel method of importance sampling, which can greatly increase the efficiency of failure probability calculation of caisson breakwaters, is proposed to estimate the failure probability of caisson breakwaters in the complete life cycle. The effectiveness of the kernel method is investigated by an example. It is indicated that the calculation efficiency of the kernel method is over 10 times the common Monte Carlo simulation method.

关 键 词：caisson breakwater complete life cycle failure probability importance sampling 

分 类 号：U656.2[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]